218
FXUS64 KLZK 310518
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
-DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
-AREA TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SETTLED WEATHER CONDNS WERE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF THE FA NEAR
30/06Z FRI NIGHT, W/ REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOVING EWRD OVER NERN OK. THRU SUNRISE SAT MRNG, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL TO NRN AR, W/
RECENT NIGHT FOG SAT IMGRY DEPICTING SOME DEVELOPMENT, COINCIDING W/
LOWERING VISBYS ON AREA SFC OBS.
THRU THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING W/ MODEST FLOW WL
RESIDE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH. SAT AND SUN, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A SFC THETA-E
GRADIENT/LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ZONE, DRAPED FM NW TO SE OVER NRN AR.
AFTN MUCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR,
W/ 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM
POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTN TO EVNG HOURS. LARGE 3CAPE VALUES > 150 J/KG
WL BE CONDUCIVE OF STRONG INITIAL UPDRAFTS, W/ MAIN CONCERNS
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT, HIGH PWAT VALUES WL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES, W/ HREF 90TH %ILE QPF HIGHLIGHTING POCKETS OF 1.5 TO 2" OR
GREATER RAINFALL W/ ANY DEVELOPMENT, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE RECENT
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.
MON, NWRLY H500 FLOW LOOKS TO INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH
AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US TROUGHING. A
CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACRS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, AS DEPICTED BY SHEAR PROFILES, ANTECEDENT
INSTABILITY, AND VARIOUS MODEL DEPICTIONS IN THE LOW-LVL MASS
FIELDS. FOR NOW, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON WHERE POSSIBLE MCS
ACTIVITY MAY ARISE, BUT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE MON AFTN TO EVNG.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHILE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT,
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS. ALL SITES WILL RETURN
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 90 69 82 / 10 20 20 0
CAMDEN AR 72 95 71 91 / 10 10 20 10
HARRISON AR 68 87 66 81 / 10 10 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 94 73 88 / 0 10 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 92 71 85 / 10 10 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 94 72 88 / 10 10 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 73 93 72 88 / 0 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 88 66 82 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 90 69 84 / 10 30 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 72 93 72 87 / 10 10 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 92 72 86 / 0 0 20 10
SEARCY AR 69 91 69 84 / 10 20 20 0
STUTTGART AR 73 92 72 85 / 10 10 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page