820
FXUS64 KLZK 312305
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
-DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
-AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
19004KT 6SM BR VCTS SCT050CB BKN250
FM010200 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250
FM011500 25004KT P6SM SKC=
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED ELEVATED PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVING NEWRD
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. THRU 12Z SUN MRNG, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE EWRD ACRS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FA. INTO THE DAY SUN, A
RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS EXPECTED, W/ HOT AND HUMID AFTN CONDNS
PREVAILING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR, W/ 20 TO 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTN TO EVNG HOURS.
SIMILAR TO SAT, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS W/ ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MON, NWRLY H500 FLOW REMAINS PROGGED TO INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE
MID-SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US
TROUGHING. A CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACRS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, AS DEPICTED BY SHEAR
PROFILES, ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY, AND NUMEROUS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
COLD POOLS DEVELOPING IN LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL
EXISTS ON FINER DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF MCS ACTIVITY
MON AFTN TO EVNG, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE MON AFTN TO
EVNG.
IN ADDITION TO AFTN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AREA TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR, ALONGSIDE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTN HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
100 DEGREES OR MORE ACRS PORTIONS OF AR, LARGELY IN THE AR RIVER
VALLEY AND ERN CNTRL AR, AND WBGT TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 85 TO 88
DEGREES. FOR JUN 1, THESE FCST VALUES CORRESPOND TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. BY FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SFC MOISTURE AND LOCAL
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FCST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. KPBF AND KLLQ WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT THE CONCLUSION
OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 91 69 82 / 30 50 20 0
CAMDEN AR 72 96 71 89 / 10 10 30 10
HARRISON AR 69 88 67 81 / 20 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 95 72 86 / 10 20 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 93 71 84 / 10 20 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 73 95 72 87 / 10 20 50 10
MOUNT IDA AR 74 94 72 87 / 0 10 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 88 67 81 / 40 30 10 0
NEWPORT AR 71 91 69 83 / 30 60 30 0
PINE BLUFF AR 73 94 71 86 / 10 20 40 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 93 72 85 / 0 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 70 92 69 84 / 20 40 40 0
STUTTGART AR 73 93 72 85 / 20 30 40 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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