472
FXUS64 KLZK 010524 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
-DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
-AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
RECENT RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED ELEVATED PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVING NEWRD
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. THRU 12Z SUN MRNG, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE EWRD ACRS THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FA. INTO THE DAY SUN, A
RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IS EXPECTED, W/ HOT AND HUMID AFTN CONDNS
PREVAILING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR, W/ 20 TO 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL THRU THE AFTN TO EVNG HOURS.
SIMILAR TO SAT, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARDS W/ ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MON, NWRLY H500 FLOW REMAINS PROGGED TO INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE
MID-SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US
TROUGHING. A CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED MCS POTENTIAL REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACRS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, AS DEPICTED BY SHEAR
PROFILES, ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY, AND NUMEROUS MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
COLD POOLS DEVELOPING IN LOW-LVL MASS FIELDS. LOWER CONFIDENCE STILL
EXISTS ON FINER DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF MCS ACTIVITY
MON AFTN TO EVNG, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE STILL EXISTS ON ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE MON AFTN TO
EVNG.
IN ADDITION TO AFTN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AREA TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR, ALONGSIDE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTN HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
100 DEGREES OR MORE ACRS PORTIONS OF AR, LARGELY IN THE AR RIVER
VALLEY AND ERN CNTRL AR, AND WBGT TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 85 TO 88
DEGREES. FOR JUN 1, THESE FCST VALUES CORRESPOND TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. BY FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SFC MOISTURE AND LOCAL
PRECIP CHANCES ARE FCST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD SUN, W/ SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN AR NEAR
01/12Z. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OF VCTS AT NRN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN TALKING POINT FOR THE NEW PD WL FOCUS ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA MOVING FM N TO S ACRS THE FA B/W 01/21Z TO
02/03Z. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON TIMING FOR NOW, BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED LATE PD PROB30 GROUPS FOR MESSAGING. VRB WINDS WL BE
SEEN THRU THE DAY MON, W/ MOST TERMINALS HOLDING A LIGHT WRLY
WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 69 82 59 / 50 20 0 0
CAMDEN AR 96 71 89 65 / 10 30 10 0
HARRISON AR 88 67 81 58 / 20 20 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 95 72 86 64 / 20 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 71 84 62 / 20 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 72 87 64 / 20 50 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 94 72 87 64 / 10 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 67 81 58 / 30 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 91 69 83 60 / 60 30 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 71 86 63 / 20 40 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 72 85 63 / 10 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 92 69 84 59 / 40 40 0 0
STUTTGART AR 93 72 85 63 / 30 40 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72/56
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