899
FXUS64 KLZK 010721
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
-A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY EVENING OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 90 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON
-SETTLED WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMGRY DEPICTED A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING EWRD
THRU SERN KS, W/ ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACRS CNTRL MO. RADAR
TRENDS, AND 00Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO
NRN AR NEAR 12Z MON MRNG, AND POSE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT,
PRIMARILY FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
ACRS PORTIONS OF NRN TO CNTRL AR MON AFTN TO EVNG. NWRLY H500 FLOW
WL INCRS IN MAGNITUDE ACRS THE MID-SOUTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PIVOTS
SWRD INTO MEAN ERN US TROUGHING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS W/ DEPICTIONS OF COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN AXIS OF MLCAPE > 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS. 00Z CAM GUIDANCE AND HREF MEAN OUTPUT SUGGEST CLUSTERS
OF STORMS DEVELOPING B/W 21-00Z ACRS NRN TO CNTRL AR. MARGINAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND POSSIBLY A WINDOW
OF MCS MAINTENANCE SWRD INTO CNTRL AR THRU LATE MON EVNG.
AN INITIAL AND DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES (TD DEPRESSIONS > 10C), MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCES > 30C WL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WHERE ANY BOW ECHOES DEVELOP.
REGARDING PLACEMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER, CAM GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT W/ CI, AND HAS BEEN STRUGGLING W/ HANDLING ONGOING
CONVECTION ACRS SERN KS AND CNTRL MO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CI OVER NRN AR MON AFTN WL BE IMPACTED AND
LKLY DRIVEN BY ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FM AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION, ASSUMING IT MOVES SEWRD INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER MON
MRNG. THIS MAY ALSO HELP DETERMINE THE EWRD EXTENT OF ACTIVITY MON
AFTN, DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW.
IN ADDITION TO AFTN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AREA TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF CNTRL TO SRN AR, ALONGSIDE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AFTN HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
100 DEGREES OR MORE ACRS PORTIONS OF AR, LARGELY IN THE AR RIVER
VALLEY AND ERN CNTRL AR, AND WBGT TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 85 TO 88
DEGREES. FOR JUN 1, THESE FCST VALUES CORRESPOND TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER MUCH OF THE FA.
TUES INTO WED, BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WL EXTEND
SWWRD INTO THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ NERLY SFC WINDS USHERING IN MUCH-
ANTICIPATED DRIER AIR, AND PROVIDING SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FM THE
HUMIDITY. THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WL SHIFT
EWRD, UPPER LVL SUBSIDENCE CENTERING OVER THE FA, AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE QUELLING AREA PRECIP CHANCES TO JUST LOCAL DIURNAL
ACTIVITY.
BY FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL SHIFT EWRD, W/
WEAK SWRLY H500 FLOW RETURNING TO THE CNTRL US. AS SFC FLOW BECOMES
SRLY AGAIN, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREA PRECIP CHANCES WL
INCREASE OVER THE FA THRU THE END OF THE PD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDNS WL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PD SUN, W/ SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN AR NEAR
01/12Z. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OF VCTS AT NRN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN TALKING POINT FOR THE NEW PD WL FOCUS ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA MOVING FM N TO S ACRS THE FA B/W 01/21Z TO
02/03Z. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON TIMING FOR NOW, BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED LATE PD PROB30 GROUPS FOR MESSAGING. VRB WINDS WL BE
SEEN THRU THE DAY MON, W/ MOST TERMINALS HOLDING A LIGHT WRLY
WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 69 81 58 / 50 40 10 0
CAMDEN AR 95 71 88 64 / 10 50 10 0
HARRISON AR 88 67 80 56 / 30 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 94 72 85 63 / 20 40 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 93 70 82 62 / 20 50 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 72 86 65 / 10 50 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 93 72 85 63 / 10 20 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 67 80 57 / 50 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 92 69 82 60 / 60 50 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 94 71 84 63 / 20 40 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 72 84 63 / 20 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 93 69 82 59 / 20 40 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 72 84 63 / 20 50 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72/56
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