984
FXUS64 KLZK 181123 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
623 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
FORECAST, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY EARLY THURS AM DEPICTED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING ESEWRD ACRS SRN MO. OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CDFRNT
ORIENTED SWWRD FM A GREAT LAKES SFC LOW, SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
OZARK PLATEAU. THRU THE DAY TODAY, THIS FRNT WL SLOWLY MOVE SWRD
INTO THE FA, W/ NRLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
AFTN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND NWRLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20
TO 30 KTS WL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF AR THURS AFTN TO EVNG. PT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT, W/ MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCES, AND 3CAPE VALUES
NEAR 80-100 J/KG, ALLUDING TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT W/ ANY
PULSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
INTO FRI, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
MOVING SWRD, STALLING OVER SRN AR BY FRI EVNG, CONTINUING TO SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR POPS, AND AN ATTENDANT, BUT LOW SEVERE THREAT THRU
THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRNT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDNS WL BE SEEN BY
THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.
THRU THE WEEKEND, MEAN H500 NWRLY FLOW WL PERSIST ACRS THE MIDWEST
REGION, W/ BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE MID-SOUTH
VCTY. A WRLY COMPONENT TO H500 FLOW WL PROMOTE LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW QUICKLY RESUMING OVER THE
STATE BY SAT. AS SFC CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND
MANEUVERS EWRD, A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO EXTEND OVER MUCH
OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THRU THIS PD, THOUGH DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MANEUVERING
THRU MEAN NWRLY FLOW, W/ MASS FIELDS INDICATING STRONG COLD POOL/MCS
ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WRM FRNT INTO
NRN AR SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. MON AND THRU MID-WEEK, H500 NWRLY FLOW WL
CONTINUE, W/ DAILY SCATTERED POP AND THUNDERSTORM COVG FAVORED ACRS
THE FA.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THREATS THRU THE WEEKEND, HIGHER QPF VALUES
REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE PD, W/ NBM/WPC GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A CORRIDOR OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL STAY NEAR
NORMAL VALUES, W/ INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND PASSING CDFRNTS, AND LIMITED CONCERNS FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT
CONDNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MIXED VFR/MVFR CONDNS WERE NOTED ACRS THE FA THURS MRNG, W/ SAT
IMGRY DEPICTING LOWER CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT AREA TERMINALS THRU THE LATER
MORNING HOURS, BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
CDFRNT WL BE MOVING THRU THE REGION FM NRN AR THIS AFTN, W/ VCSH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRNT. HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTIONS FOR NOW, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVG AT THE MOMENT. AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRNT, NRLY WINDS WL ENSUE OVER THE FA AS THE FRNT MOVES INTO CNTRL
AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 69 85 67 / 40 20 10 30
CAMDEN AR 91 73 86 72 / 20 60 70 70
HARRISON AR 81 65 82 66 / 60 40 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 73 85 71 / 10 50 50 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 72 85 71 / 20 40 40 40
MONTICELLO AR 89 74 86 73 / 30 60 60 60
MOUNT IDA AR 91 72 84 71 / 10 50 50 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 65 83 66 / 50 30 10 30
NEWPORT AR 90 71 86 69 / 40 20 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 89 73 85 72 / 20 60 40 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 72 85 71 / 30 30 40 40
SEARCY AR 91 70 86 68 / 30 30 30 30
STUTTGART AR 89 73 85 72 / 20 50 30 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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