433
FXUS64 KLZK 182249 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
FORECAST, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THROUGH MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MOSAIC REFLECTIVITY EARLY THURS AM DEPICTED A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING ESEWRD ACRS SRN MO. OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CDFRNT
ORIENTED SWWRD FM A GREAT LAKES SFC LOW, SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
OZARK PLATEAU. THRU THE DAY TODAY, THIS FRNT WL SLOWLY MOVE SWRD
INTO THE FA, W/ NRLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
AFTN SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND NWRLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20
TO 30 KTS WL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF AR THURS AFTN TO EVNG. PT FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT, W/ MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCES, AND 3CAPE VALUES
NEAR 80-100 J/KG, ALLUDING TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT W/ ANY
PULSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
INTO FRI, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRNT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
MOVING SWRD, STALLING OVER SRN AR BY FRI EVNG, CONTINUING TO SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR POPS, AND AN ATTENDANT, BUT LOW SEVERE THREAT THRU
THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRNT, COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDNS WL BE SEEN BY
THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.
THRU THE WEEKEND, MEAN H500 NWRLY FLOW WL PERSIST ACRS THE MIDWEST
REGION, W/ BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE MID-SOUTH
VCTY. A WRLY COMPONENT TO H500 FLOW WL PROMOTE LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
ACRS THE SRN PLAINS, W/ SRLY SFC FLOW QUICKLY RESUMING OVER THE
STATE BY SAT. AS SFC CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND
MANEUVERS EWRD, A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO EXTEND OVER MUCH
OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THRU THIS PD, THOUGH DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MANEUVERING
THRU MEAN NWRLY FLOW, W/ MASS FIELDS INDICATING STRONG COLD POOL/MCS
ACTIVITY FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WRM FRNT INTO
NRN AR SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. MON AND THRU MID-WEEK, H500 NWRLY FLOW WL
CONTINUE, W/ DAILY SCATTERED POP AND THUNDERSTORM COVG FAVORED ACRS
THE FA.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THREATS THRU THE WEEKEND, HIGHER QPF VALUES
REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE PD, W/ NBM/WPC GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A CORRIDOR OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS THRU THE PD WL STAY NEAR
NORMAL VALUES, W/ INTERMITTENT BOUTS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND PASSING CDFRNTS, AND LIMITED CONCERNS FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT
CONDNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
IMPACT CENTRAL SITES THIS EVENING. WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS ALSO NOTED MOVING ESE FROM NERN
OK INTO NWRN AR. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE NRN TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. A COMPLEX OF
CONVECTION MAY ALSO MOVE INTO CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS LATE FRI
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. UNDER ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 85 67 85 / 20 10 30 50
CAMDEN AR 73 85 71 86 / 50 70 60 80
HARRISON AR 64 82 66 82 / 30 10 30 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 84 70 85 / 50 60 50 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 84 70 85 / 50 40 50 70
MONTICELLO AR 74 86 72 86 / 50 60 70 80
MOUNT IDA AR 71 83 70 84 / 50 60 50 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 83 65 82 / 10 0 20 40
NEWPORT AR 70 86 68 86 / 10 10 20 50
PINE BLUFF AR 73 84 71 85 / 50 40 50 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 84 70 85 / 40 30 40 60
SEARCY AR 70 85 68 85 / 30 30 40 60
STUTTGART AR 73 84 71 85 / 40 30 40 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...62
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