919
FXUS64 KLZK 192011
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
311 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THE
THREAT.
-DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING FOR AT
LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MOST
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A DECAYING MCS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. DUE TO LESSENING ROBUSTNESS, HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF 1-3" IS NOW UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN AN
INCH IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WITH THAT
SAID, AREAS OF CLEARING IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS HAVE RESULTED IN
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THAT AREA
MAY BE THE AREA TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND PERSISTENT SRTHLY SFC FLOW WILL AID
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE STATE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL BE BACK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE BY SAT EVENING. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME
REMAIN IN THE MID 80S, THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS DEEP MOISTURE DRAWS
NORTHWARD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER MCS SAT.
THIS ROUND WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVING SSE INTO CNTRL TX. THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OR ENTER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SAT BEFORE DECAYING OVERNIGHT. REINVIGORATION
ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY SUN WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE H500 JET AXIS
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREATER FORECAST VICINITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WHICH IS SLOWLY HEADING TO THE
E/NE THIS AFTERNOON. KADF AND KHOT WILL BE IMPACTED INITIALLY WITH
KLIT, KPBF AND KLLQ LATER ON. VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT, AVERAGING LESS THAT 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 86 72 89 / 10 20 30 40
CAMDEN AR 72 87 73 91 / 70 50 20 30
HARRISON AR 65 83 70 86 / 10 40 30 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 86 73 90 / 40 50 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 86 73 91 / 30 50 30 30
MONTICELLO AR 73 86 73 90 / 50 70 30 40
MOUNT IDA AR 71 86 73 89 / 40 40 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 83 70 86 / 10 30 40 50
NEWPORT AR 69 87 73 90 / 10 20 30 50
PINE BLUFF AR 72 85 73 90 / 50 60 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 87 73 91 / 20 40 30 20
SEARCY AR 69 86 72 91 / 10 50 40 50
STUTTGART AR 72 86 74 90 / 30 50 30 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...56
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