157
FXUS64 KLZK 200533 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THE
THREAT.
-DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
-SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING FOR AT
LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MOST
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A DECAYING MCS IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. DUE TO LESSENING ROBUSTNESS, HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WAS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF 1-3" IS NOW UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE THAN AN
INCH IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WITH THAT
SAID, AREAS OF CLEARING IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS HAVE RESULTED IN
RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THAT AREA
MAY BE THE AREA TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL GOING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND PERSISTENT SRTHLY SFC FLOW WILL AID
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE STATE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL BE BACK
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE BY SAT EVENING. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME
REMAIN IN THE MID 80S, THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS DEEP MOISTURE DRAWS
NORTHWARD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER MCS SAT.
THIS ROUND WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SFC LOW FORMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND
THEN MOVING SSE INTO CNTRL TX. THE MAIN COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OR ENTER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SAT BEFORE DECAYING OVERNIGHT. REINVIGORATION
ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY SUN WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD POPS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
GENERALLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE H500 JET AXIS
REMAINS JUST TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREATER FORECAST VICINITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A WRMFRNT WAS NOTED MOVING NWRD OVER THE AR/LA BORDER REGION NEAR
06Z FRI NIGHT. MVFR TO INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ACRS SRN TO CNTRL TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST EARLY
SAT AFTN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY 18-20Z SAT AFTN.
WINDS WL BE VARIABLE ACRS THE FA AS THE FRNT MOVES THRU, W/
E-NERLY WINDS INITIALLY, BACKING TO BECOME MORE SRLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRNT AS IT CONTINUES NWRD. SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY WL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SERN AR SAT AFTN, MAINLY IMPACTING SERN
TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 72 89 74 / 10 20 40 80
CAMDEN AR 87 73 91 76 / 60 20 30 40
HARRISON AR 83 70 86 71 / 30 20 40 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 73 90 76 / 30 20 20 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 73 91 76 / 40 20 30 70
MONTICELLO AR 86 73 90 77 / 70 20 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 86 73 89 76 / 30 20 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 70 86 71 / 20 20 50 90
NEWPORT AR 87 73 90 75 / 20 20 50 80
PINE BLUFF AR 85 73 90 76 / 50 20 30 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 73 91 75 / 20 20 20 90
SEARCY AR 86 72 91 75 / 30 20 50 80
STUTTGART AR 86 74 90 77 / 60 10 30 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...72
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