202
FXUS64 KLZK 200638
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
138 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORM IN SE AR SATURDAY MORNING
-RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY BEFORE FEELS LIKE TEMPS INCREASE
SUNDAY.
-NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SFC WRMFRNT IS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH IT VERY HUMID AIR IS BEING DRAWN NORTH WITH OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NRTHRN LA. AS THIS AIRMASS
PROPAGATES FURTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T'STORM CAN DEVELOP IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF AR. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD SUPPORT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
OR TWO, BUT RELATIVELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK
ABSORPTION OF ANY RAINFALL. SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING 2 SEPARATE
MCSS WILL DEVELOP AND CONGEAL INTO 1 IN NE AND KS RESPECTIVELY
BEFORE STARTING A ESE JOG ROUGHLY TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF THE STATE, APPARENT
TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THIS SOUPY AIRMASS. THE APPROACHING MCS WILL INCREASE POP
CHANCES IN NRTHRN AR FOR A POP-UP T'STORM AHEAD OF THE MAINLINE SUN
AFTERNOON. RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE THE FIRST PUSH OF THE SYSTEM MORE
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHILE LAYING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG ITS STHRN
FLANK.
A FURTHER H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL SPARK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUN EVENING. SBCAPE >2000J/KG WOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. NEAR
PARALLEL STORM MOTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS COULD PROMOTE A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE RELATIVELY SATURATED TEMP PROFILE. LACK OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL INHIBIT ANY REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND
A MORE TRADITIONAL SQUALL LINE. THE MORE LIKELY STORM MODE WILL BE A
COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE DUE TO THE SATURATED PROFILES, PWATS NEARING
2IN, AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES. ALL OF THESE VARIABLES ADDITIONALLY HINT
AT A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 6-HR QPF ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 2-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NRTHN AR WITHIN THIS LINE.
TO START NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE LINE
OF STORMS ON SUN INTO MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP AS WELL AS APPARENT
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK THE H500 JET REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP DRIVE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AFTERNOON
T'STORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
UNTIL CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND TURNS OUR MEAN FLOW NRTHLY, BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A WRMFRNT WAS NOTED MOVING NWRD OVER THE AR/LA BORDER REGION NEAR
06Z FRI NIGHT. MVFR TO INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ACRS SRN TO CNTRL TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST EARLY
SAT AFTN. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BY 18-20Z SAT AFTN.
WINDS WL BE VARIABLE ACRS THE FA AS THE FRNT MOVES THRU, W/
E-NERLY WINDS INITIALLY, BACKING TO BECOME MORE SRLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRNT AS IT CONTINUES NWRD. SOME PRECIP ACTIVITY WL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FAR SERN AR SAT AFTN, MAINLY IMPACTING SERN
TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 72 90 74 / 10 20 20 80
CAMDEN AR 86 72 90 75 / 60 20 30 40
HARRISON AR 85 70 87 70 / 30 20 30 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 72 90 76 / 30 20 30 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 73 90 76 / 40 20 20 70
MONTICELLO AR 85 73 90 76 / 70 20 50 40
MOUNT IDA AR 86 72 88 76 / 30 20 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 70 87 70 / 20 20 30 90
NEWPORT AR 88 72 91 75 / 20 20 20 80
PINE BLUFF AR 85 72 90 76 / 50 20 30 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 73 91 76 / 20 20 20 90
SEARCY AR 87 71 91 75 / 30 20 20 70
STUTTGART AR 86 74 90 77 / 60 10 20 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...72
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