359
FXUS64 KLZK 201718
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORM IN SE AR SATURDAY MORNING
-RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY BEFORE FEELS LIKE TEMPS INCREASE
SUNDAY.
-NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SFC WRMFRNT IS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH IT VERY HUMID AIR IS BEING DRAWN NORTH WITH OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NRTHRN LA. AS THIS AIRMASS
PROPAGATES FURTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T'STORM CAN DEVELOP IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF AR. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD SUPPORT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
OR TWO, BUT RELATIVELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK
ABSORPTION OF ANY RAINFALL. SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING 2 SEPARATE
MCSS WILL DEVELOP AND CONGEAL INTO 1 IN NE AND KS RESPECTIVELY
BEFORE STARTING A ESE JOG ROUGHLY TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF THE STATE, APPARENT
TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THIS SOUPY AIRMASS. THE APPROACHING MCS WILL INCREASE POP
CHANCES IN NRTHRN AR FOR A POP-UP T'STORM AHEAD OF THE MAINLINE SUN
AFTERNOON. RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE THE FIRST PUSH OF THE SYSTEM MORE
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHILE LAYING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG ITS STHRN
FLANK.
A FURTHER H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL SPARK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUN EVENING. SBCAPE >2000J/KG WOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. NEAR
PARALLEL STORM MOTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS COULD PROMOTE A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE RELATIVELY SATURATED TEMP PROFILE. LACK OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL INHIBIT ANY REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND
A MORE TRADITIONAL SQUALL LINE. THE MORE LIKELY STORM MODE WILL BE A
COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE DUE TO THE SATURATED PROFILES, PWATS NEARING
2IN, AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES. ALL OF THESE VARIABLES ADDITIONALLY HINT
AT A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 6-HR QPF ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 2-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NRTHN AR WITHIN THIS LINE.
TO START NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE LINE
OF STORMS ON SUN INTO MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP AS WELL AS APPARENT
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK THE H500 JET REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP DRIVE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AFTERNOON
T'STORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
UNTIL CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND TURNS OUR MEAN FLOW NRTHLY, BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VCTS AND VCSH WILL BE
EXPECTED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES OF KPBF AND KLLQ FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ACROSS
ALL SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 90 74 86 / 0 20 80 60
CAMDEN AR 72 90 75 91 / 10 20 40 40
HARRISON AR 70 87 70 80 / 10 20 90 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 90 76 89 / 10 20 70 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 90 76 88 / 10 10 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 73 90 76 91 / 10 20 40 50
MOUNT IDA AR 72 88 76 87 / 10 10 70 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 87 70 81 / 0 20 90 50
NEWPORT AR 72 91 75 86 / 0 10 80 70
PINE BLUFF AR 72 90 76 89 / 10 10 60 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 91 76 87 / 10 10 90 70
SEARCY AR 71 91 75 88 / 10 10 70 70
STUTTGART AR 74 90 77 88 / 10 10 70 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...74
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