371
FXUS64 KLZK 202349
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
649 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORM IN SE AR SATURDAY MORNING
-RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY BEFORE FEELS LIKE TEMPS INCREASE
SUNDAY.
-NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SFC WRMFRNT IS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH IT VERY HUMID AIR IS BEING DRAWN NORTH WITH OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NRTHRN LA. AS THIS AIRMASS
PROPAGATES FURTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T'STORM CAN DEVELOP IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF AR. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD SUPPORT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
OR TWO, BUT RELATIVELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK
ABSORPTION OF ANY RAINFALL. SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING 2 SEPARATE
MCSS WILL DEVELOP AND CONGEAL INTO 1 IN NE AND KS RESPECTIVELY
BEFORE STARTING A ESE JOG ROUGHLY TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF THE STATE, APPARENT
TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THIS SOUPY AIRMASS. THE APPROACHING MCS WILL INCREASE POP
CHANCES IN NRTHRN AR FOR A POP-UP T'STORM AHEAD OF THE MAINLINE SUN
AFTERNOON. RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE THE FIRST PUSH OF THE SYSTEM MORE
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHILE LAYING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG ITS STHRN
FLANK.
A FURTHER H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL SPARK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUN EVENING. SBCAPE >2000J/KG WOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. NEAR
PARALLEL STORM MOTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS COULD PROMOTE A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE RELATIVELY SATURATED TEMP PROFILE. LACK OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL INHIBIT ANY REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND
A MORE TRADITIONAL SQUALL LINE. THE MORE LIKELY STORM MODE WILL BE A
COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE DUE TO THE SATURATED PROFILES, PWATS NEARING
2IN, AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES. ALL OF THESE VARIABLES ADDITIONALLY HINT
AT A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 6-HR QPF ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 2-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NRTHN AR WITHIN THIS LINE.
TO START NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE LINE
OF STORMS ON SUN INTO MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP AS WELL AS APPARENT
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK THE H500 JET REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP DRIVE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AFTERNOON
T'STORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
UNTIL CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND TURNS OUR MEAN FLOW NRTHLY, BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST AREA TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SOME MVFR MORNING STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
STATE, BUT NOTHING WITH A HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN A
CHANGE GROUP AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 91 75 87 / 0 20 70 70
CAMDEN AR 71 92 76 91 / 10 20 30 40
HARRISON AR 69 88 72 81 / 10 20 90 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 92 76 89 / 10 20 60 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 92 76 89 / 10 10 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 72 91 76 91 / 10 20 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 72 90 75 87 / 10 10 70 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 88 71 82 / 0 20 80 50
NEWPORT AR 72 91 76 88 / 0 10 70 80
PINE BLUFF AR 72 92 76 90 / 10 10 50 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 93 76 88 / 10 10 80 60
SEARCY AR 71 93 75 88 / 10 10 70 70
STUTTGART AR 73 92 77 89 / 10 10 70 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ031>033-039-
043>046-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...66
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