794
FXUS64 KLZK 210547
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORM IN SE AR SATURDAY MORNING
-RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY BEFORE FEELS LIKE TEMPS INCREASE
SUNDAY.
-NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A SFC WRMFRNT IS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH IT VERY HUMID AIR IS BEING DRAWN NORTH WITH OBSERVED
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NRTHRN LA. AS THIS AIRMASS
PROPAGATES FURTHER NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY T'STORM CAN DEVELOP IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF AR. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES COULD SUPPORT A HEAVIER DOWNPOUR
OR TWO, BUT RELATIVELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE QUICK
ABSORPTION OF ANY RAINFALL. SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING 2 SEPARATE
MCSS WILL DEVELOP AND CONGEAL INTO 1 IN NE AND KS RESPECTIVELY
BEFORE STARTING A ESE JOG ROUGHLY TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR ALL OF THE STATE, APPARENT
TEMPS EXCEEDING 100 IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER THIS SOUPY AIRMASS. THE APPROACHING MCS WILL INCREASE POP
CHANCES IN NRTHRN AR FOR A POP-UP T'STORM AHEAD OF THE MAINLINE SUN
AFTERNOON. RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE THE FIRST PUSH OF THE SYSTEM MORE
ACROSS CNTRL MO WHILE LAYING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG ITS STHRN
FLANK.
A FURTHER H500 SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE JET WILL SPARK DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUN EVENING. SBCAPE >2000J/KG WOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS. NEAR
PARALLEL STORM MOTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS COULD PROMOTE A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE THREAT. HOWEVER, THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE RELATIVELY SATURATED TEMP PROFILE. LACK OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL INHIBIT ANY REAR INFLOW JET DEVELOPMENT AND
A MORE TRADITIONAL SQUALL LINE. THE MORE LIKELY STORM MODE WILL BE A
COLD POOL DRIVEN LINE DUE TO THE SATURATED PROFILES, PWATS NEARING
2IN, AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES. ALL OF THESE VARIABLES ADDITIONALLY HINT
AT A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 6-HR QPF ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 2-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN NRTHN AR WITHIN THIS LINE.
TO START NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE LINE
OF STORMS ON SUN INTO MON. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP AS WELL AS APPARENT
TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK THE H500 JET REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH THE
AREA. COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINING IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP DRIVE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AFTERNOON
T'STORMS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY WILL NOT BE
UNTIL CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND TURNS OUR MEAN FLOW NRTHLY, BRINGING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AND COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND 10Z AT KHOT, KADF, AND KLLQ THROUGH LATE MORNING
DUE TO LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING FROM THE S. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY
MIDDAY BACK TO VFR CATEGORY. MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN TERMINALS BUT OPTED TO OMIT AT THE MOMENT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
FAR NRN AR BUT ALSO OMITTED FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS ON SUN
SHOULD BE S/SWRLY BETWEEN 10-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 75 87 68 / 20 70 70 50
CAMDEN AR 92 76 91 73 / 20 30 40 70
HARRISON AR 88 72 81 65 / 20 90 60 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 76 89 72 / 20 60 60 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 76 89 72 / 10 70 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 91 76 91 74 / 20 30 50 60
MOUNT IDA AR 90 75 87 72 / 10 70 60 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 71 82 66 / 20 80 50 50
NEWPORT AR 91 76 88 70 / 10 70 80 50
PINE BLUFF AR 92 76 90 73 / 10 50 60 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 93 76 88 72 / 10 80 60 70
SEARCY AR 93 75 88 70 / 10 70 70 60
STUTTGART AR 92 77 89 73 / 10 70 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ031>033-039-043>046-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...70
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