621
FXUS64 KLZK 210822
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
322 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
-HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON
-STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
-MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, QPFS BETWEEN 3-6
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOVED N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. BEHIND
THE FRONT VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S. APPARENT TEMPS ABOVE 105 EXPECTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY TODAY THUS A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON, AND
MONROE AND WOODRUFF COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE EASTERN EDGE
SINCE FIRST ISSUANCE.
CURRENTLY OUT TO OUR WNW AN ONGOING MCS IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS KS.
AS IT CONTINUES EAST IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS SRTH MO. THIS
WILL LEAVE BEHIND A REMNANT BOUNDARY IN ITS WAKE THAT WILL FUNCTION
AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL MO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
REINVIGORATION ALONG IT BY MID-DAY SUN. STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SLOWLY DUE S INTO N AR. AS THIS IS ONGOING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL FORM OFF THE ROCKIES AND DRIVE A MCS ESE ACROSS KS
FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PROCEEDING SYSTEM. BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ENTER THE STATE VERY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON MORNING.
THIS PRESENTATION WILL PRESENT A VERY INTERESTING/COMPLEX STORM MODE
AND INTERACTIONS AS THE MCS TRIES TO CUT ACROSS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ENVIRONMENT THESE SYSTEMS
WOULD BE ENTERING IS MODERATE TO STRONGLY BUOYANT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
>2000J/KG THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LLJ AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SHORTWAVE DRIVING THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HELP CURVE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE MCS 0-1KM SRH VALUES BETWEEN 100-200M2/S2 IN
NW AR WILL BE THE MOST POTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MCS AS IT ENTERS
THE STATE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TRADITIONAL QLCS
TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE MCS SHOULD OVERRUN THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY STORMS AND BECOME DOMINATE AND TRANSITION MORE TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PUSHES ESE ACROSS THE STATE.
ADDITIONALLY AS THESE LINES INTERACT TRAINING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS N TO C AR. 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
2.25-2.5 WOULD LIKELY GET CLOSE TO BEING EXCEEDED IN LONGER TRAINING
STORMS.
REDEVELOPMENT MUCH LIKE WHAT WILL OCCUR TO OUR N LATER TODAY
WILL OCCUR LATE MON INTO TUES. AREAS THAT WHERE WORKED OVER BY THE
COMPLEX WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MUCH LIKE THE PRECEDING TWO DAYS AS WELL ANOTHER MCS WILL FORM OFF
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE ALONG THE WAKE OF THE PRECEDING SYSTEM
EASTWARD. CAM SPREAD REMAINS HIGH ON TIMING AND INTENSITY INTO TUES,
BUT AS OF NOW FLASH FLOODING ACROSS STHRN AR APPEARS TO BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK UPPER NWRLY H500 FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MCS TO FORM OFF THE ROCKIES DAILY.
EXACT PATHS AND IMPACTS WOULD HAVE TO BE DETERMINED IN A LATER
FORECAST AS MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AS STILL QUITE WIDE IN SCOPE.
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TUES. WITH RETURN OF SRTHLY SFC WINDS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREEP INTO SW AR AND HAVE FEELS
LIKE TEMPS APPROACHING 100 RETURNING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HIGH TEMPS AND APPARENT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LATE
WEEK AS SRTHLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING BALMY CONDTIONS ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LONG RANGE SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DUE TO THE ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS C CONUS. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE A SFC
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND
RETURNING DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND 10Z AT KHOT, KADF, AND KLLQ THROUGH LATE MORNING
DUE TO LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADING FROM THE S. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY
MIDDAY BACK TO VFR CATEGORY. MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN TERMINALS BUT OPTED TO OMIT AT THE MOMENT.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
FAR NRN AR BUT ALSO OMITTED FOR THE TIME BEING. WINDS ON SUN
SHOULD BE S/SWRLY BETWEEN 10-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 74 86 68 / 10 80 60 50
CAMDEN AR 92 75 91 73 / 30 40 40 70
HARRISON AR 88 71 81 66 / 20 90 50 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 75 88 72 / 10 60 70 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 75 88 72 / 10 60 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 91 75 90 74 / 40 50 70 70
MOUNT IDA AR 89 74 86 72 / 10 70 60 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 71 81 66 / 20 90 50 50
NEWPORT AR 92 75 87 69 / 10 80 60 50
PINE BLUFF AR 91 75 89 73 / 20 60 70 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 75 87 72 / 10 70 60 80
SEARCY AR 92 74 87 70 / 10 70 60 60
STUTTGART AR 91 76 87 73 / 10 70 70 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ031>034-039-043>047-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...70
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