801
FXUS64 KLZK 220402
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
-FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH, WEST AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS UNTIL 7PM MONDAY.
-STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY; ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE
-A SWATH OF 2-4" INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG OR NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED 6+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF W, N, AND C AR UNTIL 7PM
MONDAY. RECENT CAM TRENDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BE PRODUCING
A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG OR NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. EXACT
PLACEMENT REMAINS VARIABLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN A 2-4" IN QPF SWATH
WITH LOCALIZED 6+ INCH TOTALS IS GROWING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN S MO
STALLS IN N AR, AND AN APPROACHING MCS FROM KS/OK OVERLAP.
MESOANALYSIS STILL SUPPORTS A QLCS THREAT IN W AR. MLCAPE BETWEEN
2500-3000J/KG ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 1500-
2000J/KG CLOSER TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO. 0-3KM SRH VALUES BETWEEN
100-150 M2/S2 AS WELL AS AN INCREASING LLJ WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE TORNADO THREAT IN BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WITH DCAPE
VALUES >1000J/KG VALUES WOULD SUPPORT DEPENDING REAR INFLOW JETS
WITH POTENTLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LINE ENTERS THE STATE.
RELATIVELY MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND QUICK STORM MOTION LIKELY LIMITS
THE HAIL RISK TO ONLY THE STRONGEST OF UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN THE
WSTRN 1/3 OF THE STATE BEFORE THIS LINE LOSES MOST OF ITS PUNCH
AND TRANSITIONS TO A PRIMARY HYDRO THREAT.
AREAS TO THE S OF THE LINE ON TUESDAY MORNING HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND T'STORMS. RECENT CAM/HREF RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERATE A STRONGER COLD POOL BOUNDARY
MAKING MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO S AR DIFFICULT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW; THIS SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL WITH THE EVENT MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK UPPER NWRLY H500 FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MCS TO FORM OFF THE ROCKIES DAILY.
EXACT PLACEMENT AND IMPACTS WOULD HAVE TO BE DETERMINED IN A LATER
FORECAST AS MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL QUITE WIDE IN SCOPE.
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TUES. WITH RETURN OF SRTHLY SFC WINDS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREEP INTO SW AR AND HAVE
APPARENT T'S APPROACHING 100 WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE.
HIGH TEMPS AND APPARENT T'S WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LATE WEEK
AS SRTHLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING BALMY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LONG RANGE SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DUE TO THE ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE A SFC
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND
RETURNING DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
THE TIMING OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE. WENT AHEAD AND PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS DURING THE PERIODS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE STORMS, AND PUT IN A CHANGE GROUP IN LINE WITH
THE AVERAGE HREF TIMING OF CAMS ACROSS EACH AREA TAF SITE WHEN THE
STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS ISN'T PERFECT AND WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE AMENDED
ONCE WE'RE ACTIVELY TRACKING THE LINE OF STORMS ON RADAR, BUT IS
INTENDED TO GIVE PILOTS AND ATC PERSONNEL AN IDEA OF WHEN WE
EXPECT THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO IMPACT EACH TAF SITE.
CAVANAUGH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 74 86 68 / 20 70 70 40
CAMDEN AR 92 75 91 73 / 40 40 60 60
HARRISON AR 88 70 81 66 / 30 90 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 75 88 72 / 10 70 70 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 76 88 71 / 10 60 70 70
MONTICELLO AR 91 76 90 74 / 40 30 70 60
MOUNT IDA AR 89 75 87 71 / 10 70 70 80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 71 81 66 / 30 80 40 30
NEWPORT AR 92 75 87 69 / 20 80 70 40
PINE BLUFF AR 91 75 89 72 / 20 50 70 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 76 88 72 / 10 80 60 80
SEARCY AR 92 75 88 69 / 10 70 70 50
STUTTGART AR 91 76 88 73 / 10 60 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ARZ024-031>033-039-
042>045-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...66
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