934
FXUS64 KLZK 230535
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
-A SWATH OF 2-4" INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG OR NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED 6+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF W, N, AND C AR UNTIL 7PM
MONDAY. RECENT CAM TRENDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BE PRODUCING
A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG OR NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. EXACT
PLACEMENT REMAINS VARIABLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN A 2-4" IN QPF SWATH
WITH LOCALIZED 6+ INCH TOTALS IS GROWING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE WHERE CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN S MO
STALLS IN N AR, AND AN APPROACHING MCS FROM KS/OK OVERLAP.
MESOANALYSIS STILL SUPPORTS A QLCS THREAT IN W AR. MLCAPE BETWEEN
2500-3000J/KG ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 1500-
2000J/KG CLOSER TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO. 0-3KM SRH VALUES BETWEEN
100-150 M2/S2 AS WELL AS AN INCREASING LLJ WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL QLCS TYPE TORNADO THREAT IN BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WITH DCAPE
VALUES >1000J/KG VALUES WOULD SUPPORT DEPENDING REAR INFLOW JETS
WITH POTENTLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LINE ENTERS THE STATE.
RELATIVELY MEAGER LAPSE RATES AND QUICK STORM MOTION LIKELY LIMITS
THE HAIL RISK TO ONLY THE STRONGEST OF UPDRAFTS OVERNIGHT. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN THE
WSTRN 1/3 OF THE STATE BEFORE THIS LINE LOSES MOST OF ITS PUNCH
AND TRANSITIONS TO A PRIMARY HYDRO THREAT.
AREAS TO THE S OF THE LINE ON TUESDAY MORNING HAVE A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND T'STORMS. RECENT CAM/HREF RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERATE A STRONGER COLD POOL BOUNDARY
MAKING MOISTURE RECOVERY INTO S AR DIFFICULT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW; THIS SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY
RAINFALL WITH THE EVENT MONDAY MORNING.
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK UPPER NWRLY H500 FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED MCS TO FORM OFF THE ROCKIES DAILY.
EXACT PLACEMENT AND IMPACTS WOULD HAVE TO BE DETERMINED IN A LATER
FORECAST AS MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL QUITE WIDE IN SCOPE.
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS TUES. WITH RETURN OF SRTHLY SFC WINDS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL CREEP INTO SW AR AND HAVE
APPARENT T'S APPROACHING 100 WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE.
HIGH TEMPS AND APPARENT T'S WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LATE WEEK
AS SRTHLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING BALMY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE. LONG RANGE SIGNALS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN DUE TO THE ELONGATED RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE A SFC
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND
RETURNING DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS ENTER AR
FROM THE NW AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SW AR PROVIDE
CLOUD COVER OVERTOP AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR
BY MIDDAY AS CLOUDS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE E/SE AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
INTRODUCED POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE STATE FROM THE PLAINS TUES NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 68 84 70 / 10 50 60 50
CAMDEN AR 86 72 89 72 / 40 40 40 30
HARRISON AR 79 68 81 68 / 20 60 80 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 71 86 72 / 40 60 70 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 82 71 85 72 / 30 70 70 50
MONTICELLO AR 85 72 88 73 / 40 50 60 40
MOUNT IDA AR 83 71 85 72 / 50 60 70 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 68 81 69 / 10 60 60 60
NEWPORT AR 83 69 85 71 / 10 50 50 50
PINE BLUFF AR 83 71 86 72 / 30 50 70 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 71 86 72 / 30 60 70 60
SEARCY AR 82 69 85 70 / 20 50 70 50
STUTTGART AR 82 72 85 73 / 20 50 70 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...70
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