141
FXUS64 KLZK 232356
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- NEAR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
- UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK
- TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
- ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT PROBABLE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS OVER FAR SW AR EARLY THIS
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WAS TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NW TO SE OVER SW AR. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE
ARKLATEX'S REGION. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WERE E/NE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE FRONT, WITH LOW STRATUS NOTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
PRECIPITATION TODAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR W/SW/S AR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND WITH E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 MPH,
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT NEARLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE. ENJOY, BECAUSE THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HANG AROUND LONG.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID/LATE WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, NW FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CNTRL CONUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, SWRLY
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO SETUP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE SE U.S INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. EARLY ON, UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE NWRLY FLOW ON A NEAR DAILY
BASIS RESULTING IN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BROKEN COMPLEXES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE COMPLEXES DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD TRACK
SEWRD OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE
WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY.
DAILY POP CHANCES WILL START TO DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS. LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH HIGH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE (THANKS TO
RECENT RAINFALL) COUPLED WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON
S/SWRLY WINDS, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH
APPARENT T'S REACHING OR EXCEEDING HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. HEAT RISK
IS ALSO ON PAR FAVORING MAJOR RISK CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD
(DRIVEN MAINLY BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS). TALKING ABOUT WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS, READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. WBGT TEMPS
MAY APPROACH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR INTO ERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE BOTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD LINGER OVER
THE REGION WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WOULD
PROLONG THE PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS AR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARDS PREVAILING MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS AND EVEN IFR AT A
COUPLE OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL RESULT IN AT VCSH/VCTS CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, FAVORING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
OF LOWER CERTAINTY IS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HEADING TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE FAVORING WESTERN ARKANSAS, SO
KEEPING VCTS CONDITIONS FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE PRIOR TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE OR BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 67 82 69 87 / 50 50 20 40
CAMDEN AR 70 87 71 94 / 80 50 30 0
HARRISON AR 67 81 68 83 / 60 70 30 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 85 71 90 / 70 70 40 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 84 71 90 / 70 70 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 70 85 72 92 / 70 80 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 69 84 71 88 / 60 60 40 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 80 68 83 / 50 60 30 60
NEWPORT AR 68 82 70 88 / 40 40 20 40
PINE BLUFF AR 69 84 70 91 / 70 80 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 85 71 90 / 70 70 30 10
SEARCY AR 68 83 69 89 / 60 50 20 10
STUTTGART AR 70 83 72 90 / 60 60 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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