497
FXUS64 KLZK 240813
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
313 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- NEAR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
- UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK
- TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
- HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF
N/CNTRL/SE AR THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS THANKS TO A PASSING WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SET TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS, GIVEN THIS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. DAMAGING WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT AROUND 10
MPH. DEW PT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
BY THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, NW FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW,
THEN BECOME SW FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SE
U.S.. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
SITUATED OVERTOP THE CNTRL/SRN MS VALLEY INTO THE THE TN AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE NW FLOW ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS RESULTING IN MCS DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR BROKEN COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE COMPLEXES
DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD TRACK SE OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAILY POP
CHANCES WILL START TO WANE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE (THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL)
COUPLED WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON S/SWRLY WINDS, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH APPARENT T'S
REACHING OR EXCEEDING HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. HEAT RISK IS ALSO ON
PAR FAVORING MAJOR RISK CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD (DRIVEN MAINLY
BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS). TALKING ABOUT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS,
READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES IN AR RIVER VALLEY,
CNTRL AR, AND ERN AR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WBGT TEMPS MAY APPROACH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AR INTO ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS WOULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS AR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO NO INTRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ADDED BEYOND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FROM THE SE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 70 87 73 / 20 30 40 10
CAMDEN AR 87 71 93 73 / 60 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 82 68 84 72 / 60 40 50 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 71 90 74 / 50 30 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 71 90 75 / 40 40 20 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 72 91 75 / 60 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 85 71 89 74 / 60 30 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 68 84 72 / 40 40 40 40
NEWPORT AR 84 70 89 74 / 20 40 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 84 71 90 74 / 50 30 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 71 90 74 / 60 30 30 10
SEARCY AR 84 69 89 73 / 40 30 20 0
STUTTGART AR 84 72 90 76 / 50 30 20 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...56
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