180
FXUS64 KLZK 241945 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- NEAR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
- UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK
- TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
- HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
PORTIONS OF SW AR HAVE RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 12-24 HOURS, W/ MRMS QPE HIGHLIGHTING BANDS OF 8-10+ INCHES
OVER FAR SWRN AR (MAINLY W/IN THE SHREVEPORT CWA), AND PORTIONS
OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS HAVING RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES AS OF WED
AFTN. SHORT TERM CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT PATTERN LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MRNG, W/ ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONSIDERABLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACRS
PORTIONS OF WRN TO SWRN AR. A WEAK LLJ IS SET TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION LATE TONIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
OR MORE. GIVEN THAT THERE IS ANTECEDENT FLOODING IN SOME AREAS,
AND REGIONAL SOILS WILL BE PRIMED FOR FASTER RUNOFF, HAVE
INCLUDED MUCH OF THE OUACHITAS IN A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURS
AFTN.
CONCERNING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE LAST FEW SUITES OF HREF/REFS PMM
QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF SWRN AR
W/ RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES, AND LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
4 INCHES, AS EXHIBITED BY SELECT 90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE. THE
GREATEST FLOODING THREATS WL ARISE WHERE THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF
QPF OCCURS W/ WED RAINFALL. THE FLOODING THREAT WL BE FURTHER
EXACERBATED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES, AND THE FAVORED NOCTURNAL
WINDOW (THREAT EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 1AM-7AM THURS MRNG). IF
YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE/CAMPING IN PORTIONS OF THE OUACHITAS WED
NIGHT, BE SURE TO STAY WEATHER AWARE, AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF
N/CNTRL/SE AR THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS THANKS TO A PASSING WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SET TO TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
TRAINING OF STORMS, GIVEN THIS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE
GREATEST THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. DAMAGING WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITHIN STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE S/SW AT AROUND 10
MPH. DEW PT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 70S
BY THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, NW FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW,
THEN BECOME SW FLOW AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE SE
U.S.. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
SITUATED OVERTOP THE CNTRL/SRN MS VALLEY INTO THE THE TN AND OH
VALLEY REGIONS.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE NW FLOW ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS RESULTING IN MCS DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR BROKEN COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE COMPLEXES
DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD TRACK SE OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS. DAILY POP
CHANCES WILL START TO WANE BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPRESS ORGANIZED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. WITH HIGH
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE IN PLACE (THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL)
COUPLED WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION ON S/SWRLY WINDS, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH APPARENT T'S
REACHING OR EXCEEDING HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. HEAT RISK IS ALSO ON
PAR FAVORING MAJOR RISK CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD (DRIVEN MAINLY
BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS). TALKING ABOUT WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPS,
READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES IN AR RIVER VALLEY,
CNTRL AR, AND ERN AR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WBGT TEMPS MAY APPROACH UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AR INTO ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS WOULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS AR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MIXED MVFR/VFR CONDNS WERE NOTED ACRS THE FA WED AFTN, W/ HIGHER
CIRRUS MOVING EWRD INTO WRN AR FM ONGOING CONVECTION IN OK. EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER WRN AR TO PERSIST THRU THE EVNG HOURS, POSSIBLY
BRINGING IMPACTS TO SWRN TERMINALS. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AROUND 06Z WED NIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG A BAND EXTENDING ESE FM APPROX FSM
TOWARDS PBF. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF
OVERNIGHT PRECIP, BUT AT LEAST INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDNS WL BE
POSSIBLE. MVFR VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
DOES NOT OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED ON
WED AFTN. WINDS THRU THE PD WL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 87 73 89 / 50 30 50 10
CAMDEN AR 70 92 72 92 / 50 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 67 84 72 86 / 60 60 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 90 73 90 / 60 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 90 75 91 / 40 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 71 90 74 91 / 40 30 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 71 88 73 88 / 60 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 84 71 86 / 60 50 40 30
NEWPORT AR 70 88 73 91 / 50 30 50 10
PINE BLUFF AR 70 90 74 91 / 50 30 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 90 74 91 / 60 30 10 10
SEARCY AR 70 89 73 91 / 50 30 20 0
STUTTGART AR 72 89 75 91 / 40 30 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ042-052>054-137-
140-141-237-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...72/70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...72
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