800
FXUS64 KLZK 250801
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TODAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY (NORTHERN AR)
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
- HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF SW INTO CNTRL AR EARLY THIS
THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS
DAYBREAK OVER W/SW AR WHICH IS THE BASIS OF THE CONTINUED FLOOD
WATCH. IF PRECIPITATION BECOMES ESTABLISHED (CONDITIONAL THREAT),
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ATOP WET
SOILS FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL; THIS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING IN QUICKER FASHION THAN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL IN THE LAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S OVER NRN AR TO THE LOWER 90S OVER SRN AR. APPARENT
T'S SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP OVER NRN AR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
BEYOND TODAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO NRN AR ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH MO. THEREAFTER, AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL INTENSIFY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH
APPARENT T'S RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT
RISK WILL INCREASE INTO THE MAJOR RISK CATEGORY NEXT WEEK (MAINLY
DRIVEN BY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS). LOW TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO
FALL BELOW 80 DEGREES ALONG THE AR RIVER VALLEY, CNTRL AR, INTO ERN
AR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WBGT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AR INTO ERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION BEYOND THE END OF THE LONG
TERM. THIS WOULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED
TO RESIDE OVER AR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKER WINDS,
ANTICIPATING MVFR TO IFR POTENTIAL INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THUS, VCTS AND TEMPO TSRA
WERE INTRODUCED, WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE PREVAILING VCSH INTO
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 73 89 75 / 20 30 10 10
CAMDEN AR 92 72 92 76 / 30 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 71 85 73 / 60 60 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 89 73 90 77 / 40 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 89 74 91 78 / 30 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 90 74 92 77 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 88 73 88 77 / 40 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 71 86 73 / 50 60 40 40
NEWPORT AR 88 73 90 76 / 10 30 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 89 73 92 77 / 40 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 73 90 77 / 40 30 10 10
SEARCY AR 88 72 91 75 / 20 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 88 75 91 78 / 30 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ042-052>054-137-
140-141-237-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...77
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