454
FXUS64 KLZK 092322
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
-RAIN AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD, BUT
BE PRESENT FROM I-40 NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY.
-A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE FROM THE NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO
ARKANSAS TO FINISH THE OUT THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS TO THE ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF A H500
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.
INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BECOMES FIXATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVERALL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER KEEPING RESPECTABLE POP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. INTO
THE WEEKEND, THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI AND STALL
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO WARRANT DECENT POP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER OF ARKANSAS. INTO THE LATE WEEKEND/UPCOMING WORKWEEK,
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT AND DIVE BACK
SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS,
INCREASED POP CHANCES WILL BE NOTED STATEWIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAIN PRESENT AS A FEW
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES MEANDER OVER THE STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS BUILDS INTO THE
NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING
DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE THOROUGH THE EVENING IN NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT RECENT
CAM RUNS HAVE BACK OFF ON COVERAGE CONSIDERABLY. GUSTY SSW WINDS
WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW DURING THE DAY, AND EVENTUALLY TS CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 78 95 76 / 20 10 20 40
CAMDEN AR 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 93 78 94 75 / 20 10 20 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 95 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 79 97 78 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 95 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 92 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 77 93 74 / 20 20 30 40
NEWPORT AR 95 78 96 76 / 20 10 20 30
PINE BLUFF AR 95 77 95 77 / 0 10 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 79 96 78 / 20 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 95 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ016-025-033-034-
045>047-057-065.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...78
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