411
FXUS64 KLZK 100530
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
-TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
-RAIN AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD, BUT
BE PRESENT FROM I-40 NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY.
-A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE FROM THE NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO
ARKANSAS TO FINISH THE OUT THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS TO THE ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF A H500
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.
INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BECOMES FIXATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVERALL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER KEEPING RESPECTABLE POP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. INTO
THE WEEKEND, THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI AND STALL
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO WARRANT DECENT POP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER OF ARKANSAS. INTO THE LATE WEEKEND/UPCOMING WORKWEEK,
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT AND DIVE BACK
SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY MONDAY. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS,
INCREASED POP CHANCES WILL BE NOTED STATEWIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POP
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAIN PRESENT AS A FEW
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCES MEANDER OVER THE STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE SITES OF KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, KLIT FROM THE START OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS WILL BE ANTICIPATED AT THE SITES OF KHRO, KHOT,
KADF, AND KLIT. ADDITIONALLY, PROB 30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
FOR KHRO AND KBPK WHICH MAY SEE SOME TSRA AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 95 76 91 72 / 40 30 60 70
CAMDEN AR 96 76 93 73 / 0 0 20 40
HARRISON AR 94 75 88 70 / 10 20 70 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 95 77 93 74 / 0 0 20 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 78 93 75 / 0 0 40 70
MONTICELLO AR 96 78 93 74 / 0 0 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 93 77 91 73 / 0 0 20 70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 74 87 70 / 30 40 70 70
NEWPORT AR 96 76 92 73 / 40 30 60 70
PINE BLUFF AR 95 77 93 74 / 0 0 40 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 78 93 75 / 10 0 30 70
SEARCY AR 96 76 93 72 / 20 10 60 80
STUTTGART AR 96 77 93 75 / 10 10 40 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ016-025-033-034-
045>047-057-065.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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