399
FXUS64 KLZK 110509
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1209 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
-HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE.
-OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
-SOME HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF A H500
RIDGE TODAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS. INTO THE
NEXT WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE BECOMES FIXATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS ELONGATING WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OVERALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH
IS HELPING ASSIST CONTINUED ONGOING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION IS PROGGED TO BEGIN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
INTO SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PLIGHT INTO THE
NATURAL STATE VIA SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SFC
FEATURE AND AN UPPER LVL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE STATE WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND
EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER THIS
PERIOD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POP CHANCES REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERALL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (PRE-STORM DEVELOPMENT). FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
EARLY TO MID JULY AND POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD PROXIMITY OF RAIN COOLED AIR VIA THE ELEVATED POP CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND AND UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
HOWEVER, A HEAT ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON
FRIDAY AND MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY, IF STORMS
DEVELOP LATER THAN ANTICIPATED) AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH INTO THE
105 TO 109 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY LASTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS
HIGH AS 40,000 TO 50,000+ FEET EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. CIGS
AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER STATEWIDE TO AS LOW AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE
MOST MATURE STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 73 88 70 / 80 30 70 40
CAMDEN AR 95 75 91 71 / 0 60 70 70
HARRISON AR 91 70 85 68 / 70 20 50 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 95 76 91 72 / 20 70 70 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 76 90 72 / 40 70 70 60
MONTICELLO AR 95 76 91 72 / 10 70 60 70
MOUNT IDA AR 93 75 89 71 / 30 80 80 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 90 71 84 69 / 60 20 50 20
NEWPORT AR 95 74 88 71 / 80 40 60 40
PINE BLUFF AR 95 75 90 71 / 20 80 70 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 75 91 73 / 60 60 60 40
SEARCY AR 96 73 90 70 / 70 50 60 50
STUTTGART AR 96 75 90 72 / 40 70 70 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031>034-039-
043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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