132
FXUS64 KLZK 111047
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
-A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, (INCLUDING THE LITTLE ROCK METRO), ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, PART OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND PART OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105 TO
109 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED RAIN AND
STORMS.
-A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS OVER TIME. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL (QUARTER- SIZED), AND
A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW INSTANCES OF
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
-INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE STATE AS AN UPPER
LVL HIGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A STOUT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. INTO THE WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE BECOME ELONGATED AND FIXATES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LVL HIGH PLANTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS. INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WORKWEEK, AN UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SLOWLY AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY. IT IS THE PARAMETER SPACE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL SET THE TABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST
CAMS PORTRAY A PARAMETER SPACE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND NEAR-
ZERO SHEAR; ADDITIONALLY, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 9 C/KM AND DCAPE
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1,000 J/KG TO 1,300 J/KG WILL PRESENT AN
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND CAMS HAVE LENGTHENED THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT (IN
TANDEM WITH HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES) WHICH MAY LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
WHICH WOULD PRESENT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND BE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER. LATEST CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, BUT THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL NOT
BE AS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY
(TODAY). HOWEVER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN
STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT BY
EARLY INTO THE WORKWEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-WORKWEEK AND
KEEP POP CHANCES DECENT ACROSS THE STATE FOR ISOLATED RAIN AND
STORMS; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND POP
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER INTO THE WEEK AS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING. DEGRADATION OF
FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL SITES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY LASTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS HIGH AS
40,000 TO 50,000+ FEET EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. CIGS AND
VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER STATEWIDE TO AS LOW AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE MOST
MATURE STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 72 89 70 / 80 30 20 10
CAMDEN AR 96 73 90 70 / 0 60 50 50
HARRISON AR 89 69 86 67 / 70 20 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 74 91 72 / 20 70 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 74 90 73 / 40 70 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 96 75 90 72 / 10 70 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 93 73 89 71 / 30 80 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 69 86 68 / 60 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 95 72 89 71 / 80 40 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 96 73 90 71 / 20 80 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 74 92 73 / 60 60 20 10
SEARCY AR 96 72 90 70 / 70 50 20 10
STUTTGART AR 96 74 90 72 / 40 70 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031>034-039-
043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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