685
FXUS64 KLZK 111633 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
-A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
-A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT CONCERN LATE NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A STOUT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. INTO THE WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE BECOME ELONGATED AND FIXATES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LVL HIGH PLANTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS. INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WORKWEEK, AN UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SLOWLY AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY. IT IS THE PARAMETER SPACE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL SET THE TABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST
CAMS PORTRAY A PARAMETER SPACE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND NEAR-
ZERO SHEAR; ADDITIONALLY, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 9 C/KM AND DCAPE
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1,000 J/KG TO 1,300 J/KG WILL PRESENT AN
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND CAMS HAVE LENGTHENED THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT (IN
TANDEM WITH HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES) WHICH MAY LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
WHICH WOULD PRESENT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND BE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER. LATEST CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, BUT THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL NOT
BE AS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY
(TODAY). HOWEVER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN
STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT BY
EARLY INTO THE WORKWEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-WORKWEEK AND
KEEP POP CHANCES DECENT ACROSS THE STATE FOR ISOLATED RAIN AND
STORMS; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND POP
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER INTO THE WEEK AS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER NRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL DROP GENERALLY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT
OVER CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS...WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO SRN
SECTIONS ON SUN. WHILE DOMINANT VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED...MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 72 89 70 / 80 30 20 10
CAMDEN AR 96 73 90 70 / 0 60 50 50
HARRISON AR 89 69 86 67 / 70 20 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 74 91 72 / 20 70 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 74 90 73 / 40 70 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 96 75 90 72 / 10 70 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 93 73 89 71 / 30 80 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 69 86 68 / 60 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 95 72 89 71 / 80 40 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 96 73 90 71 / 20 80 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 74 92 73 / 60 60 20 10
SEARCY AR 96 72 90 70 / 70 50 20 10
STUTTGART AR 96 74 90 72 / 40 70 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031>034-039-
043>047-057-065-121-122-130-138-230-238.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...62
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