569
FXUS64 KLZK 120519
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY
-SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT CONCERN LATE NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A STOUT REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS AND
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS. INTO THE WORKWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE BECOME ELONGATED AND FIXATES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ACTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK
INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER LVL HIGH PLANTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS. INTO THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WORKWEEK, AN UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD SLOWLY AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY. IT IS THE PARAMETER SPACE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL SET THE TABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER. LATEST
CAMS PORTRAY A PARAMETER SPACE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND NEAR-
ZERO SHEAR; ADDITIONALLY, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 9 C/KM AND DCAPE
VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 1,000 J/KG TO 1,300 J/KG WILL PRESENT AN
ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND CAMS HAVE LENGTHENED THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT (IN
TANDEM WITH HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES) WHICH MAY LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
WHICH WOULD PRESENT A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND BE MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER. LATEST CAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, BUT THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL NOT
BE AS PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY
(TODAY). HOWEVER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN
STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT BY
EARLY INTO THE WORKWEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-WORKWEEK AND
KEEP POP CHANCES DECENT ACROSS THE STATE FOR ISOLATED RAIN AND
STORMS; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND POP
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER INTO THE WEEK AS THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. VCTS
HAS BEEN LEFT WITHIN FM GROUPS TO OUTLINE THIS CONCERN. HOWEVER, THE
OVERALL TREND OF DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IS DOWNWARD. VSBY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK MAY
LOWER INTO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY; HOWEVER MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE
VSBY AND CIGS WHICH REMAIN IN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 70 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 90 71 90 70 / 60 50 20 10
HARRISON AR 87 67 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 72 91 71 / 60 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 73 90 72 / 30 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 90 72 90 71 / 40 30 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 89 71 89 70 / 70 30 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 90 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 89 71 89 71 / 40 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 73 92 72 / 20 10 0 10
SEARCY AR 90 71 89 70 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 89 73 89 72 / 20 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page