711
FXUS64 KLZK 121040
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.
-IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN OVERALL
TEMPERATURES TO BE NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
-TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH VALUES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY LATE WORKWEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTURY MARK OVER
THIS PERIOD FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FIXATED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-WEST REGIONS OF THE CONUS. CONSEQUENTLY,
FROM THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED REGION OF THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER TEXAS TRANSITIONING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. INTO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND, THE OVERALL UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER A BROAD
REGION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING
OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST CAMS AND
EVOLUTION OF GUIDANCE INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
INTO MONDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP DECENT POP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, THUS
AFTERNOON POP CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. INTO THE LATER PORTION
OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND A
REGION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO TO ZERO POP CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL NOTABLY TICK HIGHER THAN NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MID
JULY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTURY
MARK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY LEAD TO SOME VCSH AND
VCTS ACROSS THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND LATER INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
ISOLATED, THUS VCSH AND VCTS HAS BEEN USED. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT AND BECOME SKC AS THE FORECAST PERIOD GOES INTO SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 71 90 70 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN AR 90 71 90 70 / 60 50 30 10
HARRISON AR 88 68 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 72 91 71 / 60 20 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 73 90 72 / 30 0 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 90 72 90 71 / 40 30 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 88 71 89 70 / 70 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 69 88 67 / 0 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 89 71 90 71 / 40 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 73 92 72 / 20 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 90 71 91 70 / 0 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 89 73 90 72 / 20 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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