549
FXUS64 KLZK 122333
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
-A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
-SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS BEHIND
COOL FRONT TODAY...WITH CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OFF AND ON INTO
WEDNESDAY
-HOTTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPANDS BACK OVER THE REGION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE FIXATED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-WEST REGIONS OF THE CONUS. CONSEQUENTLY,
FROM THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED REGION OF THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER TEXAS TRANSITIONING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. INTO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND, THE OVERALL UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER A BROAD
REGION OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS, INCLUDING
OVER ARKANSAS.
AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST CAMS AND
EVOLUTION OF GUIDANCE INDICATES A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER IMPRESSIVE, BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
INTO MONDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA, BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP DECENT POP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, THUS
AFTERNOON POP CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. INTO THE LATER PORTION
OF THE WORKWEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THE BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AND A
REGION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
WILL RESULT IN NEAR ZERO TO ZERO POP CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL NOTABLY TICK HIGHER THAN NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MID
JULY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE CENTURY
MARK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
REMNANT ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY OVER KADF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE TERMINALS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 89 68 89 / 10 0 10 40
CAMDEN AR 71 90 69 89 / 40 10 10 20
HARRISON AR 67 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 90 71 90 / 10 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 90 71 89 / 10 10 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 72 90 71 88 / 30 10 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 69 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 72 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 50
PINE BLUFF AR 71 89 70 88 / 10 10 0 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 71 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 40
STUTTGART AR 73 89 72 88 / 0 10 0 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...77
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