181
FXUS64 KLZK 140529
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS
-TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO MAYBE
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK
-EXPECT HOTTER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH HEAT LEVELS APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
IN THE UPPER LVLS, BETWEEN TODAY (MONDAY) AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, AN ELONGATED REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS OF THE CONUS.
CONSEQUENTLY, FROM THE PLACEMENT OF THE ELONGATED REGION OF THE
UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER TEXAS. THE UPPER LVL HIGH
PRESSURE FEATURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER INTO THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD, BUT INTENSE REGION OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS WITH ARKANSAS ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
AT THE SFC, TODAY (MONDAY), A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE FIXATED
ALONG THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER WHICH WILL EQUATE TO INCREASED
POP CHANCES TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD POP CHANCES WILL BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE STATE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT OVER THIS TWO-DAY PERIOD. INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ASSIST IN KEEPING POP CHANCES SUPPRESSED OVER
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION ACROSS ALL SITES WILL BE VCTS THAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. VCTS THAT DOES MANAGE TO IMPACT A
TAF SITE MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IN THE STRONGER
CELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 71 87 71 / 40 60 80 10
CAMDEN AR 90 70 87 70 / 30 40 70 10
HARRISON AR 88 69 84 69 / 10 30 70 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 71 87 71 / 20 60 80 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 72 87 72 / 40 60 80 10
MONTICELLO AR 90 72 87 71 / 40 50 80 10
MOUNT IDA AR 90 70 85 69 / 10 50 80 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 70 84 70 / 10 30 70 10
NEWPORT AR 90 72 87 73 / 50 60 80 10
PINE BLUFF AR 89 71 86 71 / 50 50 80 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 73 88 72 / 20 60 80 10
SEARCY AR 90 71 87 71 / 50 60 80 10
STUTTGART AR 90 72 87 72 / 60 60 70 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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