248
FXUS64 KLZK 141102
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
-TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK
-EXPECT HOTTER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND... WITH HEAT LEVELS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SOME LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OR UPPER-LVL FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO
THE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGIONS OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS
UPPER LVL FEATURE, A RETROGRADING UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE FORCED TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS. ARKANSAS WILL BE SITUATED ON THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN FLANKS OF THIS UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WILL
ASSIST IN KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE UPPER LVL PATTERN UNDERGOES A TRANSITION AS THE NORTHERN REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. IN ITS PLACE, AN INTENSE, BUT BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS. OVER
THIS PERIOD, ARKANSAS WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE, PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING AIR LEADING TO
THE SUPPRESSION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE SETUP OR SURFACE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO
THE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE ADVECTING OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF POPS STATEWIDE OR SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
INTO THURSDAY, THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ARKANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY, BUT
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL NOT BE IN PLACE REQUIRED FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THIS PERIOD BEING DEFINED
BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE TRIPLE-DIGITS
AND HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BETWEEN TUESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE NOTED VIA VCTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WHICH MAY LOWER VSBY TO AS LOW AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WHICH
HAS BEEN OUTLINED VIA TEMPO GROUPS. ADDITIONALLY, INTO LATE TUESDAY
EVENING CIGS WILL LOWER FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TO AS LOW
AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MVFR TO IFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 90 71 86 71 / 40 60 70 20
CAMDEN AR 90 69 86 69 / 30 40 70 0
HARRISON AR 88 70 83 69 / 10 30 80 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 70 85 70 / 20 60 80 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 71 86 72 / 40 60 70 10
MONTICELLO AR 89 71 87 71 / 40 50 70 0
MOUNT IDA AR 89 70 84 68 / 10 50 80 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 70 83 70 / 10 30 80 20
NEWPORT AR 90 72 87 72 / 50 60 70 20
PINE BLUFF AR 89 70 86 70 / 50 50 70 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 72 86 71 / 20 60 70 20
SEARCY AR 90 70 86 70 / 50 60 70 10
STUTTGART AR 89 72 86 72 / 60 60 60 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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