665
FXUS64 KLZK 150546
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
-TEMPERATURES OVERALL ACROSS THE STATE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO MAYBE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK
-EXPECT HOTTER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND... WITH HEAT LEVELS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
SOME LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OR UPPER-LVL FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO
THE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGIONS OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THE POSITIONING OF THIS
UPPER LVL FEATURE, A RETROGRADING UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
BE FORCED TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS. ARKANSAS WILL BE SITUATED ON THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN FLANKS OF THIS UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WILL
ASSIST IN KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE UPPER LVL PATTERN UNDERGOES A TRANSITION AS THE NORTHERN REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. IN ITS PLACE, AN INTENSE, BUT BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS. OVER
THIS PERIOD, ARKANSAS WILL BE POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE, PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING AIR LEADING TO
THE SUPPRESSION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
A LOOK AT THE MESOSCALE SETUP OR SURFACE FEATURES CONTRIBUTING TO
THE FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL BEGIN
THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE ADVECTING OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED
WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF POPS STATEWIDE OR SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
INTO THURSDAY, THE WARM FRONT WASHES OUT AND MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE, A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ARKANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY, BUT
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL NOT BE IN PLACE REQUIRED FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THIS PERIOD BEING DEFINED
BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE TRIPLE-DIGITS
AND HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE WARRANTED OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
EXPECTING VFR CONDS TO BECOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
SCT SHRA/TSRA IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY
DAYBREAK. ANTICIPATING CIGS TO LIFT (BACK TO VFR) ON WED WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING.
PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES. WINDS ON WED SHOULD BE WRLY AT
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET FROM S TO N ACROSS AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 71 88 73 / 70 30 60 10
CAMDEN AR 85 69 91 71 / 70 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 69 85 70 / 60 30 60 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 70 90 72 / 60 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 71 90 74 / 70 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 86 71 91 73 / 70 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 84 68 88 70 / 70 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 70 86 71 / 70 20 50 0
NEWPORT AR 87 72 89 73 / 60 20 50 0
PINE BLUFF AR 85 70 90 72 / 70 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 87 71 90 73 / 80 20 20 0
SEARCY AR 86 70 90 72 / 70 20 20 0
STUTTGART AR 85 72 90 74 / 70 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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