355
FXUS64 KLZK 152327
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
- DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THE MAIN CONCERNS
- RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. REMAINING ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AR, ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AS LONG AS MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER, FOG SHOULD STAY ISOLATED. IF POCKETS OF
CLEARING SKIES DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE, FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE
ABSENCE OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING, RH VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT,
AND RECENT RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FROM TUESDAY.
LOOKING LOCALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION WEDGED TO THE S OF AN EXPANSIVE AND STOUT UPPER RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND OH RIVER
VALLEYS. THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO OUR N IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BACKGROUND
CLOCKWISE FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME, THE UPPER
AND NEAR SURFACE LOW (H925) IS ANTICIPATED TO RETROGRADE INTO TX
OVER THE NEXT DAY TO DAY AND A HALF. RESULTANT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE E TO W OR NE TO SW, SIMILAR IN FASHION TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON
TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS CORRELATED WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND PRECIP,
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80, I.E. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. LINGERING
CONVECTION MAY CARRYOVER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HEADING IN THURSDAY, POPS MAY LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AR DURING
THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE A DRYING PATTERN IS IN STORE ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE GOING FORWARD. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A DISSIPATING UPPER LOW OVER
W TX (OUR FORMER STORM SYSTEM), WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING BUILDING IN
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK. ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NWRLY LOCALLY ON SAID ERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. AT
THIS TIME, DO NOT SEE MUCH INDICATION OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OR UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATING WITHIN NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE RAIN/STORM CHANCES. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY MID WEEK BUT DETAILS
ARE NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME. TEMP WISE, READINGS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 90S, REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMP REACHING OR EXCEEDING
100 STANDS AT 30-50 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SPANNING FROM THE
AR RIVER VALLEY, INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR, INTO PORTIONS OF E AND
NE AR. EXCESS GROUND MOISTURE MAY WORK TO PREVENT TEMPS REACHING
100 ACROSS CNTRL/ERN HALF OF AR, NONETHELESS IT WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID DURING THIS TIME. HEAT HEADLINES MAY RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TAKE HOLD OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING ACROSS THE STATE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN S/SW
WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH AN ISOLATED GUST OR TWO
POSSIBLE UP TO 17KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 88 72 92 / 20 40 10 10
CAMDEN AR 69 91 71 94 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 69 84 70 89 / 20 40 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 91 72 93 / 20 10 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 91 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 71 92 73 94 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 68 89 71 90 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 84 70 89 / 20 40 10 10
NEWPORT AR 72 89 73 93 / 20 40 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 70 91 72 93 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 90 73 93 / 30 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 70 90 72 93 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 72 90 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76
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