072
FXUS64 KLZK 160808
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
308 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON
- DAMAGING WINDS WOULD THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARD TODAY
- DANGEROUS HEAT/HUMIDITY RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
AR. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
AR (NRN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES), HOWEVER VIS'BYS WERE BOUNCING A
BIT. IF 1/4 MILE VIS OR LESS CAN BE SUSTAINED FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TOWARDS SUNRISE. EVEN IF
FOG DOES NOT BECOME THIS PERSISTENT, HAZARD TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER THIS PORTION OF AR UNTIL THE FOG LIFTS. TEMPS WERE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM.
TODAY, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY NRN AR, ELSEWHERE, DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
BEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL REFLECT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LESS
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER WRN TX
WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AND DOMINATING RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE CNTRL CONUS FROM THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SITUATED S OF THE STATE, PROVIDING S AND
SWRLY WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE SRN
CONUS IN ADDITION TO ENCOMPASSING THE CNTRL CONUS. TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL THANKS TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE. AR IS
ANTICIPATED TO RESIDE ON THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF
NE AR, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TEMP WISE, READINGS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S, REACHING THE MID
90S OVER THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS
MAY RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK
RESIDES BETWEEN 30-60% ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND SOME OF WEDNESDAY
(OVER AR RIVER VALLEY), SPANNING FROM THE AR RIVER VALLEY, INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR, INTO PORTIONS OF E AND NE AR. EXCESSIVE GROUND
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD HINDER TEMPS FROM ACTUALLY
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 ACROSS CNTRL/ERN HALF OF AR, NONETHELESS
IT WILL BE HOT AND VERY HUMID DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME.
FOR APPARENT T'S OF 105 OR GREATER (HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY),
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE STAND AT 30-60% ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF
I30/I57 CORRIDORS FOR MONDAY, 30-80% OF EXCEEDANCE FOR ALL BUT THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MTNS ON TUESDAY, AND FOR
WEDNESDAY, 30-60% OF EXCEEDANCE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I40
CORRIDOR. INCREASING THRESHOLDS OF APPARENT T'S TO 110 OR GREATER
(EXTREME HEAT WARNING TERRITORY) AND PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDANCE
DECREASE SOMEWHAT BUT STAND AT 10-20% ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF I30/I57
CORRIDORS FOR MONDAY, 20-40% OF EXCEEDANCE ALONG AND E OF THE
I30/I57 CORRIDORS ON TUESDAY, AND ON WEDNESDAY, 20-30% OF EXCEEDANCE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF THE I30 TO I40 CORRIDORS. IN SUMMARY, A
COMBINATION OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MIX OF VFR/LIFR CONDS WERE ONGOING AS OF 06Z. THE LOWEST CONDS
WERE OVER NRN TERMINALS AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE. PRECIP
HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE STATE AND ISN'T ANTICIPATED TO
REDEVELOP UNTIL MID THURS MORNING INTO THURS AFTERNOON. MENTIONED
SHRA'S AT KHRO AND KBPK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ELSEWHERE, OPTED TO
OMIT MENTIONABLE POPS DUE TO SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST. WINDS ON
THURS WILL BE WRLY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON THURS WITH ALL SITES BACK TO VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 72 92 74 / 30 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 91 71 93 72 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 84 70 88 73 / 40 10 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 91 74 94 77 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 92 73 95 74 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 89 71 90 73 / 20 10 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 71 89 72 / 40 10 20 0
NEWPORT AR 89 73 93 75 / 20 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 72 93 74 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 73 93 75 / 10 10 20 0
SEARCY AR 90 72 94 73 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 90 74 93 76 / 10 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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