598
FXUS64 KLZK 310545
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
-ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
-IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
BE OVERALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL OCCUPY THE STATE FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THURSDAY (TODAY):
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE OF
ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD. POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS OVERALL THAN THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE YESTERDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE,
INCLUDING THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
STATE ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, LOW TO MID 90S IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND LOW TO MID 90S IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. DESPITE THE OVERALL RELIEF FROM TRIPLE-DIGIT AIR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN LOCATIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL EQUATE TO HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA. IT IS WORTH TO NOTE THAT PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN EXPECTED AND/OR COVERAGE
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY MAY WARRANT THE EARLY
CANCELLATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY, BUT THE PRACTICE OF HEAT SAFETY
WILL STILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
FRIDAY:
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS ARKANSAS IS PROGGED TO TRACK
BACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. A MODEST WARM SECTOR WILL
OPEN UP ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS AS THE COMBINATION OF THE
DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A
PARAMETER SPACE VIA ADVECTING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL PROMOTE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFIES A CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS, SPECIFICALLY
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. CAMS MODELS
WITHIN THIS TIMESCALE INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA DCAPE VALUES OF 1,300 TO 1,500 J/KG, MLCAPE
BETWEEN 1,500 AND 2,500 J/KG. FURTHERMORE, FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE
ALONG WITH ENHANCED VERTICAL VORTICITY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED, BUT
MONITORING OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WARRANTED AS STORM MODE,
PLACEMENT, AND TIMING WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WHICH REMAINS CONDITIONAL OVERALL. STAY TUNED FOR
POSSIBLE INCREASING CONFIDENCE ALONG WITH UPDATES, ESPECIALLY AS
BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK TO BE IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
EXPECT A REGION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. AT
THE MOMENT, THE PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUPY THE STATE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND OVERALL
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THIS THREE-
DAY STRETCH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
ARKANSAS, BUT BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN THE MID-SOUTH REGION
OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL KEEP LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR POPS IN PLAY
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
AN ELONGATED UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERALL AND A HOT AND DRY PATTERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE CONTROL OF THE FORECAST. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, HEAT PRODUCT WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE WARRANTED AND
POP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
EXPECT MOSTLY A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR
A DECREASE IN VSBY. A PERIOD OF RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE
INTO ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN A PERIOD OF
TWO WAVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARKANSAS LATER INTO THE DAY
ON FRIDAY BRINGING -TSRA TO THE STATE WITH GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 73 87 70 / 20 50 0 10
CAMDEN AR 97 76 93 70 / 10 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 91 68 79 66 / 20 50 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 99 75 92 71 / 0 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 99 77 93 73 / 10 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 98 77 95 72 / 10 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 97 73 90 68 / 0 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 69 80 67 / 30 50 0 0
NEWPORT AR 92 75 88 71 / 30 50 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 97 76 93 71 / 10 30 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 100 74 90 71 / 10 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 95 74 90 70 / 20 40 10 0
STUTTGART AR 96 76 92 72 / 20 30 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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