561
FXUS64 KLZK 311126
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
626 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
-A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THESE AREA WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING UPWARDS OF 109 DEGREES IN THE
WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE, SPECIFICALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
-PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MARGINAL RISK WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A VERY LOW, BUT NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS.
-IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL RETURN
TO VALUES NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES VIA A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OCCUPYING THE STATE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
-INTO MID NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE OVERALL AS A
REGION OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER ARKANSAS,
HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT (TODAY/TONIGHT):
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK OF AIR
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL
ELEVATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AND HEAT RISK ACROSS THE STATE. A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE OF HEAT PRODUCTS TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS
CONTEMPLATED FOR THE CWA, BUT DECIDED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE TREND OF RAIN COOLED AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA
VIA NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS OF 2 AM CDT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FORECASTED OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, A PARAMETER SPACE WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP. A REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z SUITES OF
GUIDANCE DEPICTS MLCAPE BETWEEN 1,000 J/KG AND 2,000 J/KG PRESENT
WITHIN THE TIMESCALE AND OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. SIMPLY PUT, BOTH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MODE CONFIDENCE DOES REMAIN
LOW FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
INTO THIS EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. ANALYSIS OF LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR AVAILABLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
LATEST CAMS INDICATE THAT THE STORM MODE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MULTICELLULAR AND QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR.
EXPECT THE MAIN HAZARD OF ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT
ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS A
VERY LOW, BUT PRESENT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT. IT WILL BE
A MUST TO PAY ATTENTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO OCCUPY THE STATE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND OVERALL
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THIS THREE-
DAY STRETCH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
ARKANSAS, BUT BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN THE MID-SOUTH REGION
OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL KEEP LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR POPS IN PLAY
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
AN ELONGATED UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERALL AND A HOT AND DRY PATTERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE CONTROL OF THE FORECAST. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE WARRANTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND POP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
EXPECT DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH -TSRA LIKELY ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES WHICH WILL LOWER VSBY TO IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST AREAS OF STORMS
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS WILL BE
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE -TSRA MOVES
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE STATE AND FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPROVES ACROSS ALL
SITES TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 95 74 87 70 / 20 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 96 77 93 71 / 10 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 92 68 81 67 / 20 50 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 76 92 71 / 0 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 98 78 92 72 / 10 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 97 79 95 72 / 10 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 96 73 90 68 / 0 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 92 69 80 68 / 30 50 0 0
NEWPORT AR 94 76 88 71 / 30 50 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 96 77 93 71 / 10 30 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 98 75 90 71 / 10 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 96 75 90 71 / 20 40 0 0
STUTTGART AR 96 78 91 72 / 20 30 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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