497
FXUS64 KLZK 010534
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
-HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET NEAR OR EXCEED 105 FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE AS A RESULT
-A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
-PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A VERY LOW...BUT NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK
-SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
-TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT (TODAY/TONIGHT):
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS A WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK OF AIR
TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBILITY OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL
ELEVATE HEAT INDEX VALUES AND HEAT RISK ACROSS THE STATE. A
POTENTIAL UPGRADE OF HEAT PRODUCTS TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS
CONTEMPLATED FOR THE CWA, BUT DECIDED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY GIVEN THE TREND OF RAIN COOLED AIR MOVING INTO THE CWA
VIA NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS OF 2 AM CDT IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FORECASTED OVERALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE, A PARAMETER SPACE WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR A FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP. A REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ANALYSIS OF BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z SUITES OF
GUIDANCE DEPICTS MLCAPE BETWEEN 1,000 J/KG AND 2,000 J/KG PRESENT
WITHIN THE TIMESCALE AND OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION OF INSTABILITY AS WELL. SIMPLY PUT, BOTH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM MODE CONFIDENCE DOES REMAIN
LOW FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
INTO THIS EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. ANALYSIS OF LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR AVAILABLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE
LATEST CAMS INDICATE THAT THE STORM MODE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE MULTICELLULAR AND QUICKLY BECOMING LINEAR.
EXPECT THE MAIN HAZARD OF ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT
ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS A
VERY LOW, BUT PRESENT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE PRESENT. IT WILL BE
A MUST TO PAY ATTENTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO OCCUPY THE STATE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND OVERALL
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THIS THREE-
DAY STRETCH. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY CLEAR
ARKANSAS, BUT BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN THE MID-SOUTH REGION
OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL KEEP LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR POPS IN PLAY
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO
THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
AN ELONGATED UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS TO OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERALL AND A HOT AND DRY PATTERN
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE CONTROL OF THE FORECAST. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BE WARRANTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AND POP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NRN SITES WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. OUTSIDE OF NRN AR, VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SWITCH THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY. WINDS MAY GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS ON SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 93 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 80 65 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 92 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 92 71 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 66 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 86 70 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 92 70 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 89 70 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 90 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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