406
FXUS64 KLZK 051740
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
-TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF HEAT HEADLINES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A FRONT.
-THIS UPCOMING HOT AND HUMID PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK. MAKE SURE TO TAKE BREAKS OUTSIDE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BETWEEN 65 F - 70 F,
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 100 F IN MOST AREAS.
SOME POCKETS OF 105+ F ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER COVERAGE OF THESE VALUES HAS PRECLUDED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL ATTEMPT TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE PARENT WAVE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR
NORTH TO BRING MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO YET ANOTHER DAY OF HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
100 F THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS ALSO REACHING 105+
F. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY, BUT DIURNAL MIXING AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS AGAIN PRECLUDED HEAT HEADLINES FOR
TOMORROW. WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, NEGLIGIBLE
SHEAR AND DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS,
BUT A SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT GREAT WITH SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DEAMPLIFY INTO FRIDAY
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER
MISSOURI WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK TOWARDS THE OZARKS AND
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. LIMITED SHEAR (<20 KNOTS) WILL KEEP STORMS
UNORGANIZED, WHICH DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY THE BOUNDARY
ARRIVES, COULD BE FURTHER INHIBITED BY PALTRY LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS ALSO IMPACTS CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES, WHICH AGAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 100 F OR HIGHER
DEPENDING ON THE INTERFERENCE OF THUNDERSTORM-RELATED OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE COOLING, HEAT HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FRIDAY.
AFTER FRIDAY'S FRONT, A MORE STAGNANT PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD OVER
THE REGION WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. SYNOPTICALLY
SPEAKING, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO PEAK ABOVE 105 F WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE SPATIALLY TO
RAISE THE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES. THEREFORE, WE MAY NEED HEAT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH DAY, BUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
MORE HOSTILE BY THIS POINT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF 105+ F HEAT INDEX VALUES. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND,
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
BEYOND MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH A PREDOMINANT SW WIND AT ALL SITES.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHRAS/TSRAS NEAR HRO AND BPK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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