737
FXUS64 KLZK 201715
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
-SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHERN/NORTHEAST SECTIONS...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE
-SOME RELIEF FROM THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE STATE...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY STILL GET NEAR 100 OVER CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION...WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE AS A RESULT
-OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST...WITH ARKANSAS
IN A MORE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LESS CONSISTENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FRONT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS THU
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT OVER WRN SECTIONS AND OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NERN SECTIONS IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BETTER SHR AND INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BIT BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME STRONG TO SVR TSRA. FURTHER SW...THIS
ACTIVITY HAS LESS SHR AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT IS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FASTER PACE. AS A RESULT...THE
THREAT FOR SVR CONVECTION IS LOWER...BUT NOT OUT OF THE SVR THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
THIS THU. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH...WITH BEST
POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR
TSRA COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
BEYOND THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS THU...WHILE THE FRONT IS
BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS...THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME AREAS THAT SEE TEMPS AT OR JUST OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO WARM OVER 105 IN MANY PLACES...MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADV AS A RESULT.
BEYOND THU...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER
WEST...WITH AR IN A MORE PERSISTENT NRLY/NWRLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR SOME SFC FRONTS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...AND
MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE CONSISTENT RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT. THIS MAY ALSO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK PROMISING
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID, SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 40
CAMDEN AR 74 100 73 100 / 20 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 69 93 71 93 / 0 10 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 101 74 100 / 30 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 99 75 100 / 30 10 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 76 101 74 101 / 30 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 71 99 71 99 / 30 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 92 70 93 / 0 10 10 40
NEWPORT AR 72 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 73 98 72 99 / 30 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 99 73 99 / 10 10 10 30
SEARCY AR 72 96 72 98 / 10 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 75 99 73 98 / 30 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ031>034-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ031-032-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...73
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