054
FXUS64 KLZK 210451
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1151 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
-OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING WEST...WITH ARKANSAS
IN A MORE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR LESS CONSISTENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FRONT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS THU
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT OVER WRN SECTIONS AND OVER NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NERN SECTIONS IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BETTER SHR AND INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BIT BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SOME STRONG TO SVR TSRA. FURTHER SW...THIS
ACTIVITY HAS LESS SHR AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT IS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH AT A FASTER PACE. AS A RESULT...THE
THREAT FOR SVR CONVECTION IS LOWER...BUT NOT OUT OF THE SVR THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE THROUGH
THIS THU. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH...WITH BEST
POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR
TSRA COULD BE SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
BEYOND THE CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS THU...WHILE THE FRONT IS
BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS...THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME AREAS THAT SEE TEMPS AT OR JUST OVER 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO WARM OVER 105 IN MANY PLACES...MAINLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. CONTINUE WITH A HEAT ADV AS A RESULT.
BEYOND THU...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SLIDING FURTHER
WEST...WITH AR IN A MORE PERSISTENT NRLY/NWRLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL
MAKE IT EASIER FOR SOME SFC FRONTS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...AND
MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE CONSISTENT RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT. THIS MAY ALSO BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INTO NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DOESN'T LOOK PROMISING
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL
SITES FOR THE TIMEFRAME OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE SITES OF KHOT AND KADF WHICH
MAY EXPERIENCE TSRA IN THE AREA OF THEIR TERMINALS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THIS WOULD BE
THE ONLY EXCEPTION OF VSBY LOWERING AT THESE TWO SITES TO IFR TO
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE THE VCTS PERIOD IF TS MANAGED TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 102 72 96 72 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 106 73 100 72 / 30 50 10 10
HARRISON AR 98 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 106 74 99 73 / 20 40 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 106 76 99 75 / 20 20 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 103 75 99 73 / 40 50 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 106 72 99 71 / 20 20 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 97 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 93 72 94 71 / 20 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 102 73 98 72 / 30 30 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 103 73 98 72 / 10 10 0 20
SEARCY AR 101 72 95 71 / 20 20 0 10
STUTTGART AR 100 74 97 73 / 20 20 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ031-032-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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