320
FXUS64 KLZK 221726 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
-VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE CONTINUED TREND OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE WILL
ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO DROP DOWN INTO ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF CAPE
ALLOWING FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED THE ENTIRE STATE OF
ARKANSAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO BECOME
SEVERE.
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE COMPRESSION HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY, BUT BRIEFLY RISE A FEW DEGREES
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERTAKES A LOCATION. FOR THIS REASON
AND OVERALL TRENDS DURING THIS HEATWAVE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NBM 75%
AND NBM 90% VALUES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK, EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
DAYS OF RELIEF POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS MULTIPLE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL
PROMOTE APPRECIABLE POP CHANCES (EXPECTED ON MONDAY) AND MODEST POP
CHANCES (ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS
COULD BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES FROM 22/21Z THROUGH 23/08Z AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS COULD BE SEEN AT OR NEAR AREA TERMINALS IMPACTED BY TS
ACTIVITY. AWAY FROM THE TS ACTIVITY, SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 94 70 90 / 20 0 50 50
CAMDEN AR 72 99 73 96 / 30 10 20 20
HARRISON AR 68 89 68 89 / 20 20 60 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 97 73 96 / 20 10 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 96 74 94 / 30 10 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 74 97 75 93 / 30 10 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 71 96 72 97 / 20 10 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 90 68 88 / 20 10 60 30
NEWPORT AR 71 93 71 90 / 30 0 40 50
PINE BLUFF AR 72 96 72 93 / 20 10 40 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 94 72 95 / 20 10 40 30
SEARCY AR 71 94 71 91 / 20 0 50 50
STUTTGART AR 73 95 73 92 / 30 10 50 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ032-039-042>046-
052>057-062>069.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67
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