177
FXUS64 KLZK 222314
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
614 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
-VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE CONTINUED TREND OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE WILL
ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO DROP DOWN INTO ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF CAPE
ALLOWING FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED THE ENTIRE STATE OF
ARKANSAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO BECOME
SEVERE.
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE COMPRESSION HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY, BUT BRIEFLY RISE A FEW DEGREES
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERTAKES A LOCATION. FOR THIS REASON
AND OVERALL TRENDS DURING THIS HEATWAVE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NBM 75%
AND NBM 90% VALUES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK, EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
DAYS OF RELIEF POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS MULTIPLE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL
PROMOTE APPRECIABLE POP CHANCES (EXPECTED ON MONDAY) AND MODEST POP
CHANCES (ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
RECENT RADAR DEPICTED SCATTERED COVG OF CONVECTION ACRS CNTRL TO
ERN AR NEAR 23/00Z. ADDITIONALLY, A PRIMARY OUTFLOW BNDRY WAS
NOTED MOVING SWRD THRU THE METRO AREA. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS BNDRY MOVES THRU, OR W/ ANY
LOCAL CONVECTION NEAR TERMINALS. EXPECT PRECIP COVG TO DISSIPATE
BEYOND 23/06Z, W/ MAINLY HIGH CLOUD COVG PERSISTING INTO SUN.
MAINLY ERLY WINDS WL BE SEEN ACRS THE FA ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 72 94 70 90 / 30 10 50 60
CAMDEN AR 73 99 73 96 / 50 30 40 20
HARRISON AR 68 89 68 89 / 20 10 60 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 97 73 95 / 50 20 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 96 73 93 / 40 20 60 40
MONTICELLO AR 73 98 74 93 / 40 30 50 50
MOUNT IDA AR 71 96 71 96 / 50 20 40 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 90 68 87 / 20 10 60 40
NEWPORT AR 72 93 71 89 / 20 0 50 60
PINE BLUFF AR 72 95 72 91 / 50 20 50 50
RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 94 72 94 / 50 10 60 20
SEARCY AR 71 94 70 90 / 40 10 60 60
STUTTGART AR 73 95 73 91 / 40 10 60 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ032-039-042>046-
052>057-062>069.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72
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