552
FXUS64 KLZK 230532
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE CONTINUED TREND OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER ARKANSAS WILL
REMAIN. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE WILL
ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO DROP DOWN INTO ARKANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF CAPE
ALLOWING FOR THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DESIGNATED THE ENTIRE STATE OF
ARKANSAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS POSSIBLE AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO BECOME
SEVERE.
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH OR
EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AS LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE COMPRESSION HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY, BUT BRIEFLY RISE A FEW DEGREES
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERTAKES A LOCATION. FOR THIS REASON
AND OVERALL TRENDS DURING THIS HEATWAVE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NBM 75%
AND NBM 90% VALUES.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK, EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
DAYS OF RELIEF POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD TO
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS MULTIPLE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL
PROMOTE APPRECIABLE POP CHANCES (EXPECTED ON MONDAY) AND MODEST POP
CHANCES (ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD -TSRA WILL BE EXITING THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
AND MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 70 90 72 / 0 30 60 20
CAMDEN AR 99 73 96 75 / 0 20 30 0
HARRISON AR 89 68 89 70 / 10 60 50 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 73 95 75 / 0 30 40 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 73 93 75 / 0 40 50 10
MONTICELLO AR 98 74 93 75 / 10 10 50 20
MOUNT IDA AR 96 71 96 73 / 0 30 40 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 90 68 87 70 / 0 40 50 0
NEWPORT AR 93 71 89 72 / 0 30 60 20
PINE BLUFF AR 95 72 91 73 / 0 30 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 94 72 94 72 / 0 40 50 0
SEARCY AR 94 70 90 71 / 0 30 60 10
STUTTGART AR 95 73 91 74 / 0 20 60 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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