475
FXUS64 KLZK 230741
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE BRUTAL
TEMPERATURES FELT ACROSS ARKANSAS LAST WEEK.
-A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR TODAY AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
-A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE FOR A FEW STORMS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT THE STATE RESULTING
POP CHANCES ON MULTIPLE DAYS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AS OF 2 AM CDT, STORMS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AND MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY:
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 105
AND 109 DEGREES DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY
FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO REMAIN DRY OVERALL WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY. A CHANCE DOES EXIST
THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT WARRANT THIS.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OR NORTHWESTERN FOURTH OF THE STATE WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE. A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WILL RESULT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL PROMOTE OR ENHANCE LIFT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE STORM MOTION OF EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS MOVING INTO A MODEST, BUT
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FOURTH OF ARKANSAS WITH PROJECTED SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS TO
SUPPORT HEALTHY UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1,000
J/KG WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
OVER ARKANSAS LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
WHICH POPS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IMPORTANT TO
NOTE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. POPS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH), AND ISOLATED PARTS OF THE STATE INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND (ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS ARKANSAS).
TEMPERATURES OVERALL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE BRUTAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK, BUT A FEW
DAYS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH LACK POP CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MANY
LOCATION AND ON THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WILL CONTINUE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD -TSRA WILL BE EXITING THE STATE OF ARKANSAS
AND MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 30
CAMDEN AR 99 74 95 73 / 0 20 30 10
HARRISON AR 90 68 86 68 / 10 60 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 98 74 94 73 / 0 30 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 74 92 74 / 0 40 50 20
MONTICELLO AR 98 75 92 74 / 10 10 50 30
MOUNT IDA AR 97 72 94 71 / 0 30 40 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 68 85 68 / 0 40 50 20
NEWPORT AR 93 70 89 70 / 0 30 40 40
PINE BLUFF AR 96 72 91 72 / 0 30 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 72 91 71 / 0 40 50 0
SEARCY AR 95 70 89 70 / 0 30 60 30
STUTTGART AR 97 73 91 73 / 0 20 50 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ052-053-062>069.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page