156
FXUS64 KLZK 232326 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
626 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE BRUTAL
TEMPERATURES FELT ACROSS ARKANSAS LAST WEEK.
-A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR TODAY AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
-A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE FOR A FEW STORMS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT THE STATE RESULTING
POP CHANCES ON MULTIPLE DAYS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AS OF 2 AM CDT, STORMS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AND MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY:
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 105
AND 109 DEGREES DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY
FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO REMAIN DRY OVERALL WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY. A CHANCE DOES EXIST
THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT WARRANT THIS.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OR NORTHWESTERN FOURTH OF THE STATE WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE. A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WILL RESULT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL PROMOTE OR ENHANCE LIFT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE STORM MOTION OF EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS MOVING INTO A MODEST, BUT
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FOURTH OF ARKANSAS WITH PROJECTED SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS TO
SUPPORT HEALTHY UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1,000
J/KG WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
OVER ARKANSAS LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
WHICH POPS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IMPORTANT TO
NOTE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. POPS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH), AND ISOLATED PARTS OF THE STATE INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND (ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS ARKANSAS).
TEMPERATURES OVERALL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE BRUTAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK, BUT A FEW
DAYS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH LACK POP CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MANY
LOCATION AND ON THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WILL CONTINUE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDNS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE NEW TAF PD, W/ SCATTERED
PRECIP COVG EXPECTED FM NRN TO CNTRL AR BY 24/12Z MON MRNG. RECENT
SAT IMGRY DEPICTED INCRSG COVG OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MID LEVEL CIGS TO BUILD OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN VFR.
ONSET TIMING OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED AROUND 10-12Z MON MRNG, W/ COVG
EXTENDING SEWRD FM NRN TO CNTRL TO SERN AR, W/ VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER
DAYBREAK. E-SERLY WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU MON, W/ SOME VRB WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 70 87 70 95 / 30 80 30 10
CAMDEN AR 74 96 74 99 / 10 20 20 10
HARRISON AR 67 85 69 92 / 70 80 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 93 74 100 / 20 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 90 74 100 / 30 60 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 93 75 97 / 10 40 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 72 94 72 101 / 10 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 84 68 92 / 60 80 30 10
NEWPORT AR 71 86 70 93 / 20 80 30 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 90 72 97 / 20 50 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 91 72 100 / 40 60 10 0
SEARCY AR 71 88 70 96 / 20 80 30 10
STUTTGART AR 74 90 73 97 / 30 70 40 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ052-053-062>069.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72
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