667
FXUS64 KLZK 240501
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE BRUTAL
TEMPERATURES FELT ACROSS ARKANSAS LAST WEEK.
-A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS PRESENT ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE FOR A FEW STORMS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT THE STATE RESULTING
POP CHANCES ON MULTIPLE DAYS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AS OF 2 AM CDT, STORMS ARE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE AND MOVING INTO MISSISSIPPI.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY:
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 105
AND 109 DEGREES DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED DURING TODAY
FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO REMAIN DRY OVERALL WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDEX VALUES INCREASE INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY. A CHANCE DOES EXIST
THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED EXPANDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT WARRANT THIS.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OR NORTHWESTERN FOURTH OF THE STATE WITH THE
MAIN HAZARD OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE. A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WILL RESULT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. THE ENTRANCE REGION WILL PROMOTE OR ENHANCE LIFT WHICH WILL
LEAD TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE STORM MOTION OF EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS MOVING INTO A MODEST, BUT
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARAMETER SPACE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
FOURTH OF ARKANSAS WITH PROJECTED SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS TO
SUPPORT HEALTHY UPDRAFTS ALONG WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1,000
J/KG WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS MOVING INTO ARKANSAS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT
OVER ARKANSAS LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD IN
WHICH POPS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IMPORTANT TO
NOTE NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. POPS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT, A LARGE
PART OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH), AND ISOLATED PARTS OF THE STATE INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND (ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS ARKANSAS).
TEMPERATURES OVERALL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LOWER THAN
THE BRUTAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK, BUT A FEW
DAYS, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH LACK POP CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MANY
LOCATION AND ON THE TREND OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR WILL CONTINUE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A COMPLEX OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
VCTS AND VCSH ARE INTRODUCED ACROSS ALL SITES. IF A TAF SITE DOES
BECOME DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, THEN VSBY MAY
DROP TO MVFR OR IFR. SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED WITHIN THE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 70 95 73 / 60 20 10 20
CAMDEN AR 96 74 99 75 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 85 69 92 71 / 80 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 93 74 100 75 / 40 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 90 74 100 77 / 80 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 93 75 97 77 / 80 30 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 94 72 101 73 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 68 92 70 / 60 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 86 70 93 73 / 30 20 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 90 72 97 74 / 80 20 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 91 72 100 74 / 70 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 88 70 96 73 / 80 20 20 20
STUTTGART AR 90 73 97 75 / 80 20 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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