685
FXUS64 KLZK 240701
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
201 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM TODAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, COMPARED TO THE BRUTAL TEMPERATURES FELT
ACROSS ARKANSAS LAST WEEK.
-THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE STATE WILL BE TODAY LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY.
-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BECOME PLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES STATEWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AS OF JUST AFTER 1 AM CDT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENTERED ARKANSAS AND ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE MOVING IN A TRAJECTORY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS THE STATE.
IN THE UPPER LVLS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER ACROSS THE CWA AS THE CENTER OF THE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS CEMENTED OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
LOUISIANA. THE PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CORRIDORS OF THE STATE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE WRAPPING
UP THE EVENT COMPLETELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A LOWER-END
FLASH FLOODING THREAT DOES EXIST, ESPECIALLY AS THESE CELLS WILL
LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A QUICK AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE MOST EFFICIENT
CONVECTION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES AS POP CHANCES DIMINISH OVERALL (WITH A FEW SMALL
EXCEPTIONS) ACROSS THE STATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NOTED SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL LIKELY
NOT BE PRESENT AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED. INTO THE WEEKEND,
POP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA LOWER TO NEAR ZERO AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
ELONGATES OVER BOTH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGIONS OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE, OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A COMPLEX OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
WIDESPREAD, THEREFORE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
VCTS AND VCSH ARE INTRODUCED ACROSS ALL SITES. IF A TAF SITE DOES
BECOME DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, THEN VSBY MAY
DROP TO MVFR OR IFR. SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED WITHIN THE TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 89 71 95 72 / 60 20 10 40
CAMDEN AR 92 73 98 73 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 86 69 92 70 / 80 10 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 90 73 98 74 / 40 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 89 74 97 75 / 80 20 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 89 72 95 74 / 80 30 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 91 71 99 72 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 86 69 92 70 / 60 10 10 20
NEWPORT AR 89 72 94 72 / 30 20 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 88 72 95 73 / 80 20 20 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 72 97 73 / 70 20 10 20
SEARCY AR 89 71 95 72 / 80 20 20 30
STUTTGART AR 89 73 95 74 / 80 20 20 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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