862
FXUS64 KLZK 250533
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
-RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN FROM TODAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, COMPARED TO THE BRUTAL TEMPERATURES FELT
ACROSS ARKANSAS LAST WEEK.
-THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE STATE WILL BE TODAY LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY.
-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO ELONGATE AND BECOME PLACED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES STATEWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AS OF JUST AFTER 1 AM CDT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENTERED ARKANSAS AND ARE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE MOVING IN A TRAJECTORY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH ARKANSAS. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS THE STATE.
IN THE UPPER LVLS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER ACROSS THE CWA AS THE CENTER OF THE
PRONOUNCED UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS CEMENTED OVER THE FOUR CORNER
REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
LOUISIANA. THE PROXIMITY OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
MOVEMENT OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CORRIDORS OF THE STATE.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE WRAPPING
UP THE EVENT COMPLETELY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES
MANAGE TO BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A LOWER-END
FLASH FLOODING THREAT DOES EXIST, ESPECIALLY AS THESE CELLS WILL
LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER A QUICK AMOUNT OF TIME IN THE MOST EFFICIENT
CONVECTION.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES AS POP CHANCES DIMINISH OVERALL (WITH A FEW SMALL
EXCEPTIONS) ACROSS THE STATE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NOTED SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL LIKELY
NOT BE PRESENT AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED. INTO THE WEEKEND,
POP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA LOWER TO NEAR ZERO AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
ELONGATES OVER BOTH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGIONS OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE, OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AN AREA OF VCTS IS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IMPACTING THE SITES OF KHOT,
KADF, KLIT, KPBF, AND KLLQ OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH MAY DROP
CIGS TO MVFR CATEGORY TUESDAY MORNING AND BE OUT OF THE STATE BY
MIDDAY ON TUESDAY WHEN ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE FLIGHT CATEGORY
RETURN TO VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 94 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 40
CAMDEN AR 96 74 97 72 / 20 0 10 40
HARRISON AR 90 70 90 68 / 0 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 74 97 73 / 10 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 75 96 75 / 10 20 20 30
MONTICELLO AR 94 75 96 73 / 30 10 20 50
MOUNT IDA AR 98 72 96 69 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 91 70 92 69 / 10 20 30 30
NEWPORT AR 94 73 95 73 / 20 30 30 40
PINE BLUFF AR 94 73 94 72 / 20 20 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 73 96 72 / 0 20 20 20
SEARCY AR 94 72 94 72 / 20 30 30 40
STUTTGART AR 94 74 94 74 / 20 20 20 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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