907
FXUS64 KLZK 251658
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
-HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
WEAK FRONT.
-CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.
-AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER ARKANSAS THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN TO HOT, HUMID AND DRY WEATHER THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TX.
DISTURBANCES HAVE BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO
AR IN THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING STORMS COULD BRING AT LEAST LOW RAIN/STORM
CHANCES BY LATE TONIGHT TO ARKANSAS. ON THE LARGER SCALE, AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WILL BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT IS FORECAST FROM I-40
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR. THE CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCV FROM CONVECTION TO THE WEST TO SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG, IF AN MCV DOES SPIN UP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
IT COULD INCREASE SHEAR LOCALLY AND HELP WITH STORM ORGANIZATION.
EXPECT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE HRRR IS ACTUALLY MODELING THIS POTENTIAL, WITH
SEVERAL LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE MODEL.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA
POINT TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING EAST AND
BECOMING CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BY THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BEGIN TO TICK
UPWARD WITH MANY LOCATIONS REACHING THE CENTURY MARK BY LATE
WEEKEND GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. MORE HEAT HEADLINES LOOK
TO BE IN THE OFFING.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KHOT OR KADF IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KHRO AND KPBK BUT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR AND SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK
WITH A MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE MO
BORDER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 95 71 94 / 20 40 50 10
CAMDEN AR 72 99 71 94 / 0 30 60 20
HARRISON AR 71 90 67 88 / 10 60 40 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 98 72 94 / 0 30 60 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 98 73 94 / 10 40 70 10
MONTICELLO AR 74 98 72 92 / 10 30 70 20
MOUNT IDA AR 70 97 69 94 / 0 30 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 71 91 69 90 / 20 50 50 0
NEWPORT AR 74 94 72 92 / 20 30 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 97 71 91 / 10 30 70 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 96 71 95 / 0 40 60 10
SEARCY AR 73 95 71 92 / 20 40 60 10
STUTTGART AR 74 96 73 92 / 20 30 70 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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