312
FXUS64 KLZK 261047 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
-SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED THIS WEDNESDAY
-SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
-UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS BACK OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS...PLACING
AR IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK UPPER
WAVES TO DROP SE OVER THE STATE...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. THE
SVR THREAT WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEEING SVR CONVECTION DOES INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING OVER AR
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A FEW OF
THESE TSRA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE
SEEN...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DECREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN
SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A NEW FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY FRI. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION THU...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
ON THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN EXPANDING BACK EAST
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE MAY EVENTUALLY
SETTLE OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS MAY
RETURN TO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR HIGHS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY EXCEED 105 FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL ALSO DECREASE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A BREAK IN
PRECIP WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HRS...BUT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 91 71 93 67 / 50 30 10 0
CAMDEN AR 99 71 94 70 / 30 40 10 10
HARRISON AR 89 66 87 62 / 50 20 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 98 72 95 69 / 50 40 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 97 73 94 71 / 50 40 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 97 72 93 70 / 20 50 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 96 69 94 65 / 50 40 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 88 68 89 63 / 50 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 89 72 91 68 / 60 30 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 95 71 92 68 / 20 50 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 71 94 68 / 60 40 10 0
SEARCY AR 93 71 92 68 / 60 30 10 0
STUTTGART AR 93 73 93 70 / 30 40 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62
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