206
FXUS64 KLZK 261748
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
-STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
-SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED THIS WEDNESDAY
-SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
-UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS BACK OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WEST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS...PLACING
AR IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK UPPER
WAVES TO DROP SE OVER THE STATE...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS OVERHEAD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
BECOME POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE. THE
SVR THREAT WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEEING SVR CONVECTION DOES INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASING OVER AR
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A FEW OF
THESE TSRA COULD BECOME STRONG TO SVR...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT EXPECTED. SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE
SEEN...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DECREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN
SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
DROP SE ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A NEW FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE BY FRI. THERE COULD BE SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION THU...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
ON THU/THU NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND
THIS FRONT...WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN EXPANDING BACK EAST
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE MAY EVENTUALLY
SETTLE OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION BY LATE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS MAY
RETURN TO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR HIGHS...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY EXCEED 105 FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL ALSO DECREASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
PER LATEST CAM TYPE GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS CONCENTRATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THEN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 02Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09-15Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 93 72 97 69 / 40 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 97 71 96 70 / 20 50 20 10
HARRISON AR 90 68 91 65 / 50 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 97 72 97 71 / 40 40 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 73 97 72 / 30 40 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 96 72 95 71 / 20 60 20 20
MOUNT IDA AR 97 70 96 68 / 30 30 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 90 69 93 66 / 60 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 92 73 95 70 / 60 40 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 95 72 94 70 / 20 50 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 96 72 97 71 / 40 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 93 72 95 70 / 30 30 20 10
STUTTGART AR 95 73 95 72 / 20 30 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55
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