022
FXUS64 KLZK 022347
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
-A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS, A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS, THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY, AND A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
-A PORTION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 110+ SETTLE OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA
-ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR PARTS OF
ARKANSAS, BUT CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND RAINFALL TOTALS IN
LOCATIONS THAT DO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOW
-HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
WEDNESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL PROMOTE
THE CONTINUATION OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SFC, A REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH IS PROGGED
TO RAISE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY SOAR BETWEEN 110 AND NEAR 115
DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
STATE. INTO FRIDAY, LOWER END POPS OR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE STATE
MAY SPUR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN
LOW AND TOTAL RAINFALL WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH, PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH
TO SETTLE THE DUST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE BECOMING DISPLACED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS POSITIONING ARKANSAS UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE. AT THE SFC, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OR
MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL
APPROACH THE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD TAPPING INTO MOISTURE, BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE POP CHANCES WHILE PRESENT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND ISOLATED LEADING TO MOST
LOCATIONS REMAINING COMPLETELY DRY. IT IS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE TO
EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WITHIN THIS PERIOD. HEAT
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THIS PERIOD AS
WELL.
LOOKING BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD:
THE CLOSEST SIGNAL OF POSSIBLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR PER THE
00Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN TANDEM WITH THE 19Z NBM GUIDANCE
FROM YESTERDAY WHICH HIGHLIGHTS A PERIOD LATER NEXT WORKWEEK WHEN
WE MAY HAVE A BREAK FROM THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RESPECTABLE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARKANSAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, AVERAGING UNDER 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 97 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 98 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 97 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 98 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 98 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ007-008-016-017-025-
031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-137-138-230-
237-238.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...56
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